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Perplexed comments on [Link] Space Stasis: What the strange persistence of rockets can teach us about innovation - Less Wrong
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Ah! I've got it now. The assumption that bots are available doesn't weaken the case for an early elevator. The assumption that bots are necessary does weaken the case.
I don't know why it took me so long to pick up on that. Sorry.
No problem. I wasn't sure I was being fair in inferring that the bots were necessary. If they aren't necessary, then by the same exact logic, our probability ought to go up - 'A v B ~> C' is stronger than 'A ~> C'. (The more independent pathways to a result, the more likely one will work within a certain time span.)