Unnamed comments on Procedural Knowledge Gaps - Less Wrong
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Comments (1477)
How to Buy Stocks
First Option:
Second Option:
Third option:
The last option is very rarely a good idea. You cannot pick good stocks- good stocks do not exist. What exists are good companies and good opportunities. Companies that everyone knows are good- like Apple- are rarely good opportunities, but sometimes the company is so good that it's worth buying at a premium. I'm up 9x on Netflix over 4 years, even though I bought it at a fairly high price, because I recognized that it was going to reshape its industry and eat Blockbuster's lunch. I'm up 50% on BP because I was able to identify the point of maximum pessimism and buy then. That's 2 significant winners over the last 4-5 years of active investing. I'm in the black overall only because of how awesome Netflix was; there's a lot of stocks I bought that lost a bunch or merely tread water. I now take the opportunity approach seriously.
The moral of the story is that you should hunt opportunities where you have something the market lacks, and then bet big on those opportunities. If you don't have any more knowledge than the market, bet on the market as a whole in an index fund. I had more foresight than the market as a whole when it came to Netflix (but not to many other things I bought) and a sterner stomach than the market when it came to BP, but without that edge I'm not comfortable betting on anything but that the general trend of the market is up.
(You can still lose when you've got an edge- one of my friends called the tech bubble and shorted the market, but was early by a few months and lost quite a bit of money- but it's the best and most consistent way to win.)
Why the S&P index (VFINX) and not the Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX), which has broader coverage and the same expense ratio?
The last time I looked, VFINX had better historical performance than VTSMX. I don't know if that is still true / what periods that was true for, but the difference between the two shouldn't be that large. I personally hold both, and consider either a fine choice.
I don't pay much attention to historical performance. If one segment of the market has been doing better than the market as a whole, that doesn't mean that it will keep it up. And looking at the data here, VTSMX seems to have actually done very slightly better than the S&P 500 since it was created in 1992.
I've invested in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) since that comes closer to betting on the market as a whole. It's closer to the ideal of diversifying as much as possible, spreading your investment evenly across the whole market rather than concentrating it in particular companies, sectors, or segments of the market. The S&P 500 only covers about 75% of the US stock market and is concentrated in larger companies, while the Total Stock Market Index fund is based on an index (MSCI US Broad Market Index) which covers over 99% of the US stock market and matches the market's balance between large, medium, and small companies.
I agree that the difference between the two index funds isn't large. Investing in the Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) is basically equivalent to putting three quarters of your money in an S&P 500 index (like VFINX) and putting the other quarter of your money in an index of the rest of the US stock market (excluding the S&P 500). And even that last quarter is highly correlated with the S&P 500.
I've edited it in to the original post, though with a significantly more terse description of it than this comment tree. I do want option one to be as simple as possible :P