CarlShulman comments on Procedural Knowledge Gaps - Less Wrong
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This doesn't seem to be so up to at least the 1 in 10,000 level. However, I agree that the predictive power of theses tests is still small relative to the remaining sources of variation (although it is one which we are relatively good at measuring) and they shouldn't be over-weighted.
Thanks for the link, I wasn't familiar with these results.