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patrissimo comments on Procedural Knowledge Gaps - Less Wrong
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Couldn't it just be an erroneous application of (an intuited version of) Newton's law of cooling, which says that heat transfer is linearly proportional to heat difference? They assume that the thermostat temperature is setting the temperature of the heating element, and then apply their intuited Newton's Law.
Seems pretty rational to me.
For example, this absolutely works with say, an electric stove.