eli_sennesh comments on Procedural Knowledge Gaps - Less Wrong

126 Post author: Alicorn 08 February 2011 03:17AM

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Comment author: Vaniver 09 February 2011 07:00:52PM *  22 points [-]

How to Buy Stocks

First Option:

  1. Acquire at least $3,000 in a checking account, and grab your account number and routing number. (It's written on the bottom of your checks.)
  2. Go to Vanguard.com and open an account.
  3. Buy into VTSMX, the total market index fund, or VFINX, the S&P 500 index fund. If you have trouble picking, flip a coin; they're very similar funds.

Second Option:

  1. Go to Sharebuilder.com and open an account. They shouldn't require a significant starting balance, but might.
  2. Sign up for automatic investing to take advantage of dollar cost averaging.
  3. Buy VFINX or VTSMX.

Third option:

  1. List out what you know about a company.
  2. List out what the market knows about that company.
  3. If your knowledge is better than the market's, then proceed. Otherwise (including if you don't know how much the market knows), go to option 1.
  4. Go to your bank and read about their brokerage accounts. If the fees aren't excessive (check Sharebuilder and other banks and stuff like etrade), open a brokerage account, or go to option 2 and open a Sharebuilder account.
  5. Transfer money to your brokerage account.
  6. Plan out your trades: under what conditions will you buy a stock? (not "the price now is ok" but "if it's less than $60 I think it's worthwhile.") Under what conditions will you sell a stock? This is mostly a restatement of steps 1 and 2, but it's nice to have these numbers for every individual stock.
  7. Execute trades; the interface should be straightforward.

The last option is very rarely a good idea. You cannot pick good stocks- good stocks do not exist. What exists are good companies and good opportunities. Companies that everyone knows are good- like Apple- are rarely good opportunities, but sometimes the company is so good that it's worth buying at a premium. I'm up 9x on Netflix over 4 years, even though I bought it at a fairly high price, because I recognized that it was going to reshape its industry and eat Blockbuster's lunch. I'm up 50% on BP because I was able to identify the point of maximum pessimism and buy then. That's 2 significant winners over the last 4-5 years of active investing. I'm in the black overall only because of how awesome Netflix was; there's a lot of stocks I bought that lost a bunch or merely tread water. I now take the opportunity approach seriously.

The moral of the story is that you should hunt opportunities where you have something the market lacks, and then bet big on those opportunities. If you don't have any more knowledge than the market, bet on the market as a whole in an index fund. I had more foresight than the market as a whole when it came to Netflix (but not to many other things I bought) and a sterner stomach than the market when it came to BP, but without that edge I'm not comfortable betting on anything but that the general trend of the market is up.

(You can still lose when you've got an edge- one of my friends called the tech bubble and shorted the market, but was early by a few months and lost quite a bit of money- but it's the best and most consistent way to win.)

Comment author: [deleted] 28 October 2014 08:00:17AM *  0 points [-]

My addition to the Third Option would be: if you know something's a good company, wait until a cyclical (but fundamentally extraneous to the company's business prospects) market downturn and buy it while everything is crashing. You almost definitely won't hit buy while the share price is bottoming out, but once the market recovers and the economy overall continues growing, you will probably get good value for your purchase.

(Of course, this depends on you being cash-flush enough to invest countercyclically! Most people can't do this, because most people are going to be in personal cash crunches exactly when the market or economy overall goes down.)

Comment author: Vaniver 28 October 2014 04:34:44PM 1 point [-]

My addition to the Third Option would be: if you know something's a good company, wait until a cyclical (but fundamentally extraneous to the company's business prospects) market downturn and buy it while everything is crashing.

I think this is basically wrong, because opportunities are time-sensitive. If a company is undervalued now, it's not obvious it will remain undervalued until the next cyclical downturn, and you pass up on the benefits of any market correction in the valuation of the undervalued company.

I do agree that it makes sense to invest countercyclically (where you have more of your wealth in stocks when you think the stock market is undervalued, and more of your wealth in cash / CDs / etc. when you think the stock market is overvalued), but determining whether the stock market as a whole is undervalued or overvalued is a difficult task, and it takes planning and forethought to ensure you are not cash crunched when the economy dips (which you should do now).

I also think that correctly pricing downturn risks is a subset of correctly pricing shocks in general. How much damage will the oil spill actually do to BP? How much damage will Jobs's death do to Apple? How much damage will Buffet's death do to Berkshire Hathaway? How much damage will a general economic downturn do to Apple?

I'm pessimistic on Apple's prospects without Jobs, because of what I know about his management style, but time will tell how that turns out. I'm optimistic about BRK's prospects without Buffet, again because of what I know about his management style--and so if the market dips significantly when they take his pulse again, I'll buy BRK (like I bought BP when the market overestimated the damage). And here we're in the same sort of situation- if you think that BRK is will grow in both the short-term and long-term, but there's an upcoming predictable dip (Buffet's death), do you wait for the predictable dip to buy, just buy now, or split some funds out to buy now and other funds to wait for the dip?

Comment author: [deleted] 29 October 2014 03:13:03PM 0 points [-]

I think this is basically wrong, because opportunities are time-sensitive. If a company is undervalued now, it's not obvious it will remain undervalued until the next cyclical downturn, and you pass up on the benefits of any market correction in the valuation of the undervalued company.

Disagree. The point is not to pick out undervalued stocks, but to ride the cycles.

Comment author: Lumifer 29 October 2014 04:04:40PM 0 points [-]

If you want to ride the cycles, shouldn't you just market-time the broad index of your choice? Picking "undervalued" companies to ride the cycles implies that you have two skills (which, I think, are mostly orthogonal) -- the stock-picking skill and the market-timing skill.

Comment author: [deleted] 29 October 2014 04:30:15PM 0 points [-]

Fair enough, although I would generally say to pick the stock via fundamentals and industry-specific knowledge.

Comment author: ChristianKl 28 October 2014 05:48:13PM 0 points [-]

My addition to the Third Option would be: if you know something's a good company, wait until a cyclical (but fundamentally extraneous to the company's business prospects) market downturn and buy it while everything is crashing.

This assumes that you can generally beat the market by buying stocks when you think there a market downturn and selling them when you think the market as a whole is high. This assumes that the efficient market hypothesis is wrong on a fundamental level.

Comment author: [deleted] 29 October 2014 03:11:38PM 3 points [-]

Well, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is wrong on a fundamental level -- its stated conditions for market efficiency often fail to prevail in the real world. Panics are one of those times, and being more rational than other people is not a free lunch, but in fact a Substantial Effort for Good Return Lunch.

(I've seen one paper actually proving, rather humorously, that EMH is completely true IFF P = NP.)