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cousin_it comments on Subjective anticipation as a decision process - Less Wrong
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Comments (23)
Killing observers to change the limiting frequency is cheating :-)
Consider a simpler example: I flip a coin and show you the result. Then if it came up heads, I kill you, otherwise I repeat the experiment. I think you'd be correct (in some yet-undiscovered sense) to have a "subjective anticipation" of 50% heads and 50% tails before the throw, but counting the surviving branches after many trials gives a "limiting frequency" of mostly tails. This doesn't look to me like a fair interpretation of "limiting frequency", because it arbitrarily throws away all observations made by those of you who ended up dying. If I could resurrect them and include them in the poll, I'd get a different result.
If you resurrect them and include them in the poll, and assuming you average their observed frequencies, don't you still get F(A)=1? As I said, I'm not sure what you mean by "limiting frequency", but I don't see how you can get something other than F(A)=1 in my example.
Averaging observed frequencies sounds weird...
If I count all observer-moments that get told their labels, the fraction of observer-moments that get told A is 1/3. If each observer has a fixed amount of "reality fluid" that gets split in equal parts when copies are made and disappears when copies die, the total fraction of "reality fluid" in observer-moments that get told A is also 1/3, but by a different calculation. Maybe both these methods of counting are wrong, but the answer 1 is still far from certain.