Extremely Counterfactual Mugging or: the gist of Transparent Newcomb

Bongo

Omega will either award you $1000 or ask you to pay him $100. He will award you $1000 if he predicts you would pay him if he asked. He will ask you to pay him $100 if he predicts you wouldn't pay him if he asked.

Omega asks you to pay him $100. Do you pay?

This problem is roughly isomorphic to the branch of Transparent Newcomb (version 1, version 2) where box B is empty, but it's simpler.

Here's a diagram:

Omega will either award you $1000 or ask you to pay him $100. He will award you $1000 if he predicts you would pay him if he asked. He will ask you to pay him $100 if he predicts you wouldn't pay him if he asked.

Omega asks you to pay him $100. Do you pay?

This problem is roughly isomorphic to the branch of Transparent Newcomb (version 1, version 2) where box B is empty, but it's simpler.

Here's a diagram:

Of course I don't pay. Omega has predicted that I won't pay if he asked, and Omega's predictions are by definition correct. I don't see how this is a decision problem at all.

Omega problems do not (normally) require Omega to be assumed a perfect predictor, just a sufficiently good one.

1Lightwave15y

What if the person being asked for the $100 is a simulation of you which Omega is using to check whether you'll pay if he asked you? You won't know whether you're the simulation or not.

1wedrifid15y

And that is where most people make their mistake when encountering this kind of decision problem. It varies somewhat between people whether that error kicks in at standard Newcomb's, Transparent Newcomb's or some other even more abstract variant such as this.