Doesn't that contradict the original assertion? That is, at that point it sounds like it's no longer "Omega will ask me to pay him $100 if he predicts I wouldn't pay him if he asked," it's "Omega will ask me to pay him $100 if he predicts I wouldn't pay him if he asked OR if I'm a simulation." Not that any of this is necessary. Willingness to pay Omega depends on having arbitrarily high confidence in his predictions; it's not clear that I could ever arrive at such a high level of confidence, but it doesn't matter. We're just asking, if it's true, what decision on my part maximizes expected results for entities for which I wish to maximize expected results? Perhaps I could never actually be expected to make that decision because I could never be expected to have sufficient confidence that it's true. That changes nothing. Also worth noting that if I pay him $100 in this scenario I ought to update my confidence level sharply downward. That is, if I've previously seen N predictions and Omega has been successful in each of them, I have now seen (N+1) predictions and he's been successful in N of them. Of course, by then I've already paid; there's no longer a choice to make. (Presumably I should believe, prior to agreeing, that my choosing to pay him will not actually result in my paying him, or something like that... I ought not expect to pay him, given that he's offered me $100, regardless of what choice I make. In which case I might as well choose to pay him. This is absurd, of course, but the whole situation is absurd.) ETA - I am apparently confused on more fundamental levels than I had previously understood, not least of which is what is being presumed about Omega in these cases. Apparently I am not presumed to be as confident of Omega's predictions as I'd thought, which makes the rest of this comment fairly irrelevant. Oops.