Extremely Counterfactual Mugging or: the gist of Transparent Newcomb

Bongo

Omega will either award you $1000 or ask you to pay him $100. He will award you $1000 if he predicts you would pay him if he asked. He will ask you to pay him $100 if he predicts you wouldn't pay him if he asked.

Omega asks you to pay him $100. Do you pay?

This problem is roughly isomorphic to the branch of Transparent Newcomb (version 1, version 2) where box B is empty, but it's simpler.

Here's a diagram:

Omega will either award you $1000 or ask you to pay him $100. He will award you $1000 if he predicts you would pay him if he asked. He will ask you to pay him $100 if he predicts you wouldn't pay him if he asked.

Omega asks you to pay him $100. Do you pay?

This problem is roughly isomorphic to the branch of Transparent Newcomb (version 1, version 2) where box B is empty, but it's simpler.

Here's a diagram:

I assume that you would not consider this to be a problem if Omega was replaced with a 99% reliable predictor. Confirm?

...Huh? My version of Omega doesn't bother predicting the agent, so you gain nothing by crippling its prediction abilities :-)

ETA: maybe it makes sense to let Omega have a "trembling hand", so it doesn't always do what it resolved to do. In this case I don't know if the problem stays or goes away. Properly interpreting "counterfactual evidence" seems to be tricky.