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Desrtopa comments on Subjective Relativity, Time Dilation and Divergence - Less Wrong
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No, it wasn't. But while civilizations may seem important to us, it's not as if they're a major step forward in the complexity of the universe from any perspective except ours. A calendar which lists "Rupestral painting in Europe" along with "Big Bang" and "Milky Way formed" is not an unbiased documentation of the complexification of the universe.
Technology may currently be experiencing exponential growth, but trying to extrapolate this as part of a universal trend is frankly ridiculous.
My other reply addressed some of these points.
Basically all that exists is just space-time patterns. You can certainly debate the relative importance of the emergence of electrons vs the emergence of rupestral paintings, but that is missing the larger point. The patterns are all that is real, and there is no fundamental difference between electrons, civilizations, or paintings in that sense.
There is clearly a universal trend. It is not technological, it is universal. Technology is just another set of patterns.
It's slightly more difficult to asses the change in types and complexity of patterns in general vs just estimating the numerical change in one particular type of pattern, such as iron atoms. Nonetheless the change in overall pattern complexity over time is undeniable, universal, and follows a trend.
If the calendar recorded every event of comparable significance to "formation of the galaxy" and "formation of the solar system," there would be hundreds of sextillions of them on the calendar before the emergence of life on Earth. The calendar isn't even supposed to imply that more significant stuff has been happening recently, only that most of what we conceive of as "history" has taken place in a fraction of the lifetime of the universe.
No. The calendar represents a statistical clustering of pattern changes that maps them into a small set of the most significant. If you actually think there are "hundreds of sextillions of events" that are remotely as significant as the formation of galaxies, then we have a very wide inferential distance or you are adopting a contrarian stance. The appearance of galaxies is one event, having sextillion additional galaxies doesn't add an iota of complexity to the universe.
Complexity is difficult to define or measure as it relates to actual statistical structural representation and deep compression that requires intelligence. But any group of sophisticated enough intelligences can roughly agree on what the patterns are and will make similar calendars - minus some outliers, contrarians, etc.
The formation of the Milky Way is listed as a single event, as is the formation of the Solar system. There are hundreds of sextillions of stars, with more being created all the time, and plenty more that have died in the past.
The calendar contains the births of Buddha, Jesus and Mohammad. Even if we were supposing that these were events of comparable significance to the evolution of life itself, do you honestly think each one adds appreciably to the complexity of the universe, that they could not simply be compressed into "Birth of religious figures," whereas the formation of every star system in the universe is compressible into a single complexifying event?
If you think that events like the cave paintings are of comparable significance to the formation of galaxies in general, we're dealing with a vast gulf of inferential distance.
Again the electron is one pattern, and it's appearance is a single complexity increasing event, not N events where N is the number of electrons formed. The same for stars, galaxies, or anything else that we have a word to describe.
And once again the increase in complexity in the second half of the U shape is a localizing effect. It is happening here on earth and is probably happening in countless other hotspots throughout the universe.
It is expected that the calendar will contain events of widely differing importance, and the second half acceleration phase of the U curve is a localization phenomena, so the specific events will have specifically local importance (however they are probably examples of general patterns that occur throughout the universe on other developing planets, so in that sense they are likely universal - we just can't observe them).
The idea of a calendar of size N is to do a clustering analysis of space-time and categorize it into N patterns. Our brains do this naturally, and far better than any current algorithm (although future AIs will improve on this).
There is no acceptable way to compute the 'perfect' or 'correct' clustering or calendar. Our understanding of structure representation and complex pattern inference just isn't that mature yet. Nonetheless this is largely irrelevant, because the deviations between the various calendars of historians are infinitesimal with respect to the overall U pattern.
The formation of star systems is a single pattern-emergence event, it doesn't matter in the slightest how many times it occurs. That's the entire point of compression.
I think most people would put origin of life in the top ten and origin of current religions in the top hundred or thousand, but this type of nit-picking is largely beside the point. However, we do need at least enough data points to see a trend, of course.
Once again, we are not talking about the complexity of the universe. Only the 1st part of the U pattern is universal, the second half is localized into countless sub-pockets of space-time. (it occurs all over the place wherever life arises, evolves intelligence, civilization, etc etc)
As for the specific events Buddha, Jesus, Mohammad, of course they could be compressed into "origin of major religions", if we wanted to shrink the calendar. The more relevant question would be: given the current calendar size, are those particular events appropriately clustered? As a side point, its not the organic births of the leaders that is important in the slightest. These events are just poorly named in that sense - they could be given more generic tags such as the "origin of major world dominating religions", but we need to note the local/specific vs general/universal limitation of our local observational status.
The appearance of cave paintings in general is an important historical event. As to what caliber of importance, it's hard to say. I'd guess somewhere of between 2nd to 3rd order (a good fit for calendars listing between 100 to 1000 events). I'd say galaxies are 1st order or closer, so they are orders of magnitude more important.
But note the spatial scale has no direct bearing on importance.
The deviations between various calendars of human historians are infinitesimal on the grand scale because the deviations in the history that we have access to and are psychologically inclined to regard as significant are infinitesimal out of the possible history space and mind space.
Can you provide even an approximate definition of the "complexity" that you think has been accumulating at an exponential rate since the beginning of the universe? If not, there's no point arguing about it at all.
If you take a small slice of laminar cortex and hook it up to an optic feed and show it image sequences, it develops into gabor-like filters which recognize/encode 2D edges. The gabor filters have been mathematically studied and are optimal entropy maximizing transforms for real world images. The edges are real because of the underlying statistical structure of the universe, and they don't form if you show white noise or nothingness.
Now take that same type of operation and stack many of them on top of each other and add layers of recursion and you get something that starts clustering the universe into patterns - words.
These patterns which we regard as "psychologically inclined to regard as significant" are actual universal structural patterns in the universe, so even if the particular named sequences are arbitrary and the 'importance' is debatable, the patterns themselves are not arbitrary. See the cluster structure of thingspace and related posts.
See above. Complexity is approximated by words and concepts in the minds of intelligences. This relates back to optimal practical compression which is the core of intelligence.
Kolmogorov complexity is a start, but it's not computationally tractable so it's not a good definition. The proper definition of complexity requires an algorithmic definition of general optimal structural compression, which is the core sub-problem of intelligence. So in the future when we completely solve AI, we will have more concrete definitions of complexity. Until then, human judgement is a good approximation. And a first order approximation is "complexity is that which we use words to describe".
Humans possess powerful pattern recognizing systems. We're adapted to cope with the material universe around us, it's no wonder if we recognize patterns in it, but not in white noise or nothingness.
What you appear to be doing is substituting in a black box function of your own mind as a fundamental character of the universe. You see qualities that seem interesting and complex, and you label them "complexity" when they would be better characterized as {interestingness to humans} (or more precisely, {interestingness to jacob_cannell}, but there's a lot of overlap there.)
"{Interestingness to humans} has an exponential relationship with time over the lifetime of the universe" packs a lot less of a sense of physical inevitability. The universe is not optimized for the development of {interestingness to humans}. We've certainly made the world a lot more interesting for ourselves in our recent history, but that doesn't suggest it's part of a universal trend. The calendar you linked to, for instance, lists the K-T extinction event, the most famous although not the greatest of five global mass extinction events. Each of those resulted in a large, albeit temporary, reduction in global ecosystem diversity, which strikes me as a pretty big hit to {interestingness to humans}. And while technology has been increasing exponentially throughout the global stage recently, there have been plenty of empire collapses and losses of culture which probably mark significant losses of {interestingness to humans} as well.
So, what your post really relies upon is the proposition that {interestingness to humans} can be made to experience an endless exponential increase over time, without leaving Earth. I am convinced that the reasonable default assumption given the available data is that it cannot.
Yes, and I was trying to show how this relates to intelligence, and how intelligence requires compression, and thus relates to complexity.
We recognize patterns because the universe is actually made of patterns. The recognition is no more arbitrary than thermodynamics or quantum physics.
No. One of the principle sub-functions of minds/intelligences in general is general compression. The patterns are part of the fundamental character of the universe, and it is that reality which shapes minds, not the other way around.
Complexity is not {interestingness to humans}. Although of course {interestingness to humans} is related to complexity, because our minds learn/model/represent patterns, we find patterns 'interesting' because they allow us to model that which exists, and complexity is a pattern-measure.
I suspect we could agree more on complexity if we could algorithmically define it, even though that shouldn't be necessary (but I will resort to that shortly as a secondary measure). We could probably agree on what 'humans' are without a mathematical definition, and we could probably agree on how the number of humans has been changing over time.
Imagine if we could also loosely agree on what 'things' or unique patterns are in general, and then we could form a taxonomy over all patterns, where some patterns have is-a relationships to other patterns and are in turn built out of sub-patterns, forming a loosely hierarchical network. We could then roughly define pattern complexity as the hierarchical network rank order of the pattern in the pattern network. A dog is a mammal which is an animal, so complexity increases along that path, for example, and a dog is more complex than any of it's subcomponents. We could then define 'events' as temporal changes in the set of patterns (within some pocket of the universe). We could then rank events in terms of complexity changes, based on the change in complexity of the whole composite-pattern (within space-time pockets).
Then we make a graph of a set of the top N events.
We then see the U shape trend in complexity change over time.
If you want a more mathematical definition, take Kolmogorov complexity and modify it to be computationally tractable. If K(X) is the K-complexity of string X defined by the minimal program which outputs X (maximal compression), then we define CK(X, M, T) as the minimal program which best approximates X subject to memory-space M and time T constraints. Moving from intractable lossless compression to lossy practical compression makes this modified definition of complexity computable in theory (but it's exact definition still requires optimal lossy compression algorithms). We are interested in CK complexity of the order computable to humans and AIs in the near future.
Complexity != {interestingness to humans}
Complexity over time does appears to follow an inevitable upward accelerating trend in many localized sub-pockets of the universe over time, mirroring the big bang in reverse, and again the trend is not exponential - it's a 1/x type shape.
The trend is nothing like a smooth line. It is noisy, and there have been some apparent complexity dips, as you mention, although the overall trend is undeniably accelerating and the best fit is the U shape leading towards a local vertical asymptote. As a side note, complexity/systems theorists would point out that most extinctions actually caused large increases in net complexity, and were some of the most important evolutionary stimuli. Counterintuitive, but true.