wedrifid comments on The Power of Positivist Thinking - Less Wrong

68 Post author: Yvain 21 March 2009 08:55PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 20 July 2012 11:55:58AM 6 points [-]

"All men are created equal" is false insofar as looking at the atom configurations: every human is unique (by Quantum Indistinguishability, any non-unique humans are the same human). On the other hand it is probably true insofar as the CEV Morality Computation says.

"The lottery is a waste of hope" is true by an expected capital gain calculation (net loss) and putting mental energy into something that is a net loss is worse by utilitarianism than something that is a net gain (working hard and hoping you get rich) because at the very least, having money allows you to donate more to charity.

"Religious people are intolerant," largely depends on the religion how much of the scripture is "boo for unbelievers," but it seems to almost always incite ingroup-outgroup dichotomies in the psychology of the believers, and that I think is pretty much what intolerance springs from.

"Government is not the solution; government is the problem" is false, because humans generally need more than 'fairness' to avoid defection on the iterated prisoners dilemma. Many don't realise that bureaucracy is fair, if often slow and bloated. A real chance of punishment decided by fair trial is very effective at deterring defectors.

"George Washington was a better president than James Buchanan," depends solely on the criterion. Peoples opinion? Historical attitude? GDP growth rates? Precentage of votes won at election? Your own boo/yay rating? Mix and match as you like.

"The economy is doing worse today than it was ten years ago," depends on whether you look at GDP growth or GDP, global economic crisis means lower growth, but we are still richer than ten years ago.

"God exists," very unlikely, courtesy of Solomonoff Induction.

"One impulse from a vernal wood can teach you more of man, of moral evil, and of good than all the sages can," bluh? Is this some sort of pop culture reference? Depends on what vernal wood is: if it is something akin to the Akashic record granting omniscience, then it is true. If it is anything else, probably not.

"Imagination is more important than knowledge," false, the more knowledge you have, the more your lawful creativity can search, the better your imagination, the better you can use what you have gained with the eleventh virtue. Both are roughly equally important.

"Rationalists should win," mathematical tautology. Perfectly rational bayesian expected utility maximizers do just that. As humans, it is a good heuristic to avoid privileged rituals of thought.

Comment author: wedrifid 20 July 2012 01:49:13PM 3 points [-]

"Rationalists should win," mathematical tautology. Perfectly rational bayesian expected utility maximizers do just that.

Just clarify for me, the way you use the phrase would you say a perfectly rational Bayesian expected utility maximizer takes one box or two in Newcomb's problem? Plenty of people would claim that that particular combination of terms refers to a particular kind of agent (and meaning of 'rational') which two boxes. The phrase "Rationalists should win" comes built in with the unambiguous "one box" prescription. Those people would therefore either say that the phrase "rationalists should win" is tautologically false or perhaps insist on different language.

Comment author: [deleted] 20 July 2012 07:11:01PM 3 points [-]

The BayRatUtilMax agent I am talking about is of course running the One True Decision Theory which one boxes, is immune to acausal blackmail, and all sorts of other nice features.