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Costanza comments on Secure Your Beliefs - Less Wrong
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Starting on page 114 of his book about randomness, The Drunkard's Walk, Physicist Leonard Mlodinow tells a real-life story about being told by his doctor that the results of a blood test showed that there was a 999 out of 1,000 chance he had AIDS and would be "dead within a decade." Mlodinow (who did not have AIDS) uses this as an introduction to Bayes' Theorem. His doctor had made exactly the error described in An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem.
Well, to be precise, the Intuitive Explanation describes exactly this error, previously found to have been made by doctors.
You're objecting that this particular instance wasn't described in IEBT, but rather its class was? Otherwise I'm not sure what distinction you're drawing. Or am I missing an edit by the parent?
I'm saying that the doctors are the original and IEBT is the copy, not the other way around.