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Normal_Anomaly comments on BOOK DRAFT: 'Ethics and Superintelligence' (part 1) - Less Wrong
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I have a similar feeling. If it hasn't happened within a century, I'll probably think (assume for the sake of argument I'm still around) that it will be in millenia or never.
200 years is my 'outer bound.' It may very well happen much sooner, for example in 45 years.