Psy-Kosh comments on Farmington Hills, MI Less Wrong meetup: Sunday, February 20 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Psy-Kosh 13 February 2011 06:42PM

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Comment author: mhowardthomas 20 February 2011 08:59:53PM 0 points [-]

Nice to meet you!

Comment author: Psy-Kosh 22 February 2011 04:42:46PM 0 points [-]

Nice to meet you too. (Er, which one were you again? (Was nice to meet all of you, so I can make the statement honestly even without knowing that particular info. :)))

Comment author: mhowardthomas 23 February 2011 09:03:30PM 0 points [-]

I was the smaller of the guys with a baby. I was the one who was complaining about people having inconsistent metrics for assigning value. I'm rather new to this site, and I wouldn't surprise me to find these issues covered previously, I may just need to do some digging. It was great meeting you and so many similarly interested individuals. If only more people cared about being less wrong!

Comment author: Psy-Kosh 23 February 2011 11:27:25PM *  0 points [-]

Well, you probably are right that we're not really totally consistent, at least in our reasoning.

I was just noting that we as individuals kind of need to resolve those inconsistencies. Generally, when you notice an inconsistency in your preferences, you're able to either decide you prefer one to the other or say you don't know, at which point you (at least for the moment) assign them equal rank, right?

Further, I was noting that even if for some stuff you're not entirely clear on, there're cases where you definitely prefer one thing to the other all else being equal. (The case of not being equal is where you start computing the knock-on effects/separate consequences and modify the net value based on those modifiers...)

Then from there, one can construct utilities by looking at differences between how much stuff is valued. (Which basically can be done by going "if I'd be equally surprised if A or B occur, if I have no particular expectation one way or the other... And if I'm offered to either conditionally replace A with C... that is, if A would have occurred, instead C will occur) or to replace B with D, then whichever one I choose, I'd assign a higher difference to.(ie, utility(C) - utility(A) > utility(D) - utility(B) if you choose the first option, or if you're indifferent, you set those differences as equal.) From there you have an internal "currency" to use, and you can pretty much dutch book argument your way up to Bayesian probability (and the rest of decision theory, I believe). (Well, okay, to actually make the Dutch Book argument work here, we have to focus more on your potential losses and gains rather than the opponents, and more "how much potential utility are you willing to sacrifice to gain some other amount of utility under some circumstances", but that's more just rephrasing and such)