Well, it would certainly go too far to give mythicism an overwhelming probability. It may go too far to say that Occam's Razor unambiguously favors mythicism.

But the second claim, if we agree that Paul had an unusual experience of some kind which changed his behavior, would require only that people in Paul's time spoke of a nameless Essene Teacher of Righteousness dying on a cross. (And of course other, less likely discoveries would make the case just as well.)