I generally agree with your points, and draw special attention to the last sentence :

"you're also prone to present criticism against you as a result of a trendy choice to stand up to a perceived cult leader (this is a dangerous stance for oneself to adopt, even when true).." I'm not sure to what extent this is a double-instance of the recency effect (Anatoly's last sentence, and referring to Eliezer's most recent post) but it's something to be avoided regardless.