If I understand your 'problem' correctly - estimating potential ally capabilities and being right/wrong about that (say, when considering teammates/guildmates/raid members/whatever), then it's not nearly a game-specific concept - it applies to any partner-selection without perfect information, like mating or in job interviews. As long as there is a large enough pool of potential parners, and you don't need all of the 'good' ones, then false negatives don't really matter as much as the speed or ease of the selection process and the cost of false positives, where you trust someone and he turns out to be poor after all.
There's no major penalty for being picky and denigrating a potential mate (or hundreds of them), especially for females, as long as you get a decent one in the end; In such situations the optimal evaluation criteria seem to be 'better punish a hundred innocents than let one bad guy/loser past the filter', the exact opposite of what most justice systems try to achieve.
There's no major penalty for, say, throwing out a random half of CV's you get for a job vacancy if you get too many responses - if you get a 98% 'fit' candidate up to final in-person interviews, then it doesn't matter that much if you lose a 99% candidate that you didn't consider at all - the cost of interviewing an extra dozen of losers would be greater than the benefit.
The same situation happens also in MMOG's, and unsurprisingly people tend to find the same reasonable solutions as in real life.
You may have heard about IARPA's Sirius Program, which is a proposal to develop serious games that would teach intelligence analysts to recognize and correct their cognitive biases. The intelligence community has a long history of interest in debiasing, and even produced a rationality handbook based on internal CIA publications from the 70's and 80's. Creating games which would systematically improve our thinking skills has enormous potential, and I would highly encourage the LW community to consider this as a potential way forward to encourage rationality more broadly.
While developing these particular games will require thought and programming, the proposal did inspire the NYC LW community to play a game of our own. Using a list of cognitive biases, we broke up into groups of no larger than four, and spent five minutes discussing each bias with regards to three questions:
The Sirius Program specifically targets Confirmation Bias, Fundamental Attribution Error, Bias Blind Spot, Anchoring Bias, Representativeness Bias, and Projection Bias. To this list, I also decided to add the Planning Fallacy, the Availability Heuristic, Hindsight Bias, the Halo Effect, Confabulation, and the Overconfidence Effect. We did this Pomodoro style, with six rounds of five minutes, a quick break, another six rounds, before a break and then a group discussion of the exercise.
Results of this exercise are posted below the fold. I encourage you to try the exercise for yourself before looking at our answers.
Caution: Dark Arts! Explicit discussion of how to exploit bugs in human reasoning may lead to discomfort. You have been warned.
Confirmation Bias
Fundamental Attribution Error
Bias Blind Spot
Anchoring Bias
Representativeness Bias
Projection Bias
Planning Fallacy
Availability Heuristic
Hindsight Bias
Halo Effect
Confabulation
Overconfidence Bias
Summary
How long do you think it should take to solve a major problem if you are not wasting any time? Everything written above was created in a sum total of one hour of work. How many of these ideas had never even occurred to us before we sat down and thought about it for five minutes? Take five minutes right now and write down what areas of your life you could optimize to make the biggest difference. You know what to do from there. This is the power of rationality.