wedrifid comments on Fun and Games with Cognitive Biases - Less Wrong

62 Post author: Cosmos 18 February 2011 08:38PM

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Comment author: patrissimo 03 March 2011 08:03:47AM 7 points [-]

Feed confirmatory evidence to others, give them tests to run which you know beforehand are confirmatory

This is not a way to take advantage of confirmation bias. Confirmation bias means that others look for confirming evidence for their true theories, and ignore disconfirming evidence. This process is not much affected by you adding extra confirmatory evidence - they can find plenty on their own. Instead, it is a way to fool rational people - for example, Bayesians who update based on evidence will update wrong if fed biased evidence. Which doesn't really fit here.

The way to actually use confirmation bias to convince people of things is to present beliefs you want to transmit to them as evidence for things they already believe. Then confirmation bias will lead them to believe this new evidence without question, because they wish to believe it to confirm their existing beliefs.

Comment author: wedrifid 03 March 2011 03:36:11PM 2 points [-]

Instead, it is a way to fool rational people - for example, Bayesians who update based on evidence will update wrong if fed biased evidence. Which doesn't really fit here.

It should be noted that it is a way to fool Bayesians over whom you have some kind of epistemic advantage. That is, you have to be for some reason better able to provide deceptive data than they are at accounting for your ability or inclination to deceive. That is hard to do without an overwhelming advantage in one of intelligence, power, knowledge or anonymity.