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gwern comments on [Link] "It'll never work": a collection of failed predictions - Less Wrong
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So, what lesson should we learn from these cherry-picked predictions?
About all I can say is, 'try to avoid predictions out to infinity'. Over a few years or millennia, most of those were awful good predictions...
My personal lesson was that eloquence, confidence and status can often be bad predictors of accuracy. While I knew it in principle, these striking examples helped me bring it closer to the gut level. ymmv.