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wedrifid comments on Singularity Institute now accepts donations via Bitcoin - Less Wrong
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That chart shows all sorts of technical indicators. Are any of those metrics design to give an indication of how likely it is for a currency to completely collapse, based on what can be gleaned from current performance?
I think Bitcoin is quite unlikely to completely collapse in the next year because there are enough people with a vested interest in Bitcoin going up (namely Bitcoin miners/hoarders) that would start buying long before the value of a Bitcoin approached .1 USD.
I am now somewhat curious in the abstract as to what economists have devised to predict the stability of a currency purely based of historical data. Surely there is something. Anyone familiar with the subject?
I doubt much of anything can be said about currency based only on historical data. Bitcoins are financial assets, and like other financial assets their future price behavior is very difficult to predict because expectations of future price behavior affect future price behavior.