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HonoreDB comments on Rationality Quotes: March 2011 - Less Wrong
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So what does "can beat you" mean? I still don't understand this either in the context of baseball or rationality.
If "can beat you" means "could, theoretically, beat you" then you walk everybody. If "can beat you" means "is p>.5 to beat you" then you never intentionally walk anybody--if a pitcher is so tired he thinks the next batter is p>.5 to get a hit, he should ask to be relieved. If "can beat you" means "is p>k to beat you" where k is some threshold, then Paige does seem to be saying "walk people more than you do currently".
It isn't about tiredness or general competence.
The other replies here explain the quote well. I must affirm the rational decision making principle that is illustrated.