I don't know much about AI specifically, but I do know something about software in general. And I'd say that even if someone had a correct general idea how to build an AGI (an assumption that by itself beggars belief given the current state of the relevant science), developing an actual working implementation with today's software tools and methodologies would be sort of like trying to build a working airplane with Neolithic tools. The way software is currently done is simply too brittle and unscalable to allow for a project of such size and complexity, and nobody really knows when and how (if at all) this state of affairs will be improved.
With this in mind, I simply can't take seriously people who propose a few years long roadmap for building an AGI.
And I'd say that even if someone had a correct general idea how to build an AGI (an assumption that by itself beggars belief given the current state of the relevant science), developing an actual working implementation with today's software tools and methodologies would be sort of like trying to build a working airplane with Neolithic tools.
This is the sort of sentiment that has people predict that AGI will be built in 300 years, because "300 years" is how difficult the problem feels like. There is a lot of uncertainty about what it takes to b...
Artificial general intelligence researcher Ben Goertzel answered my question on charitable giving and gave his permission to publish it here. I think the opinion of highly educated experts who have read most of the available material is important to estimate the public and academic perception of risks from AI and the effectiveness with which the risks are communicated by LessWrong and the SIAI.
Alexander Kruel asked:
Ben Goertzel replied:
What can one learn from this?
I'm planning to contact and ask various experts, who are aware of risks from AI, the same question.