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Manfred comments on Bayesianism in the face of unknowns - Less Wrong
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For simplicity, let's imagine betting on a single coin with P(heads) = 0.9. You say "how much will you pay to win $1 if it lands heads?" and I say "50 cents," because at the start I am ignorant. You flip it and it lands heads. I just made 40 cents relative to the equilibrium value.
So it's not predictably losing money. It's predictably being wrong in an unpredictable direction.