Vaniver comments on How I Lost 100 Pounds Using TDT - Less Wrong
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I agree that this is the real question; what surprised me was Eliezer's confident empirical statement on a subject where all the weak data I have points in the opposite direction. It looks to me like the historical data suggests that calorie availability and sedentary lifestyles might be the primary explanations (and of the two, I would expect calorie availability to have a larger impact).