I would like to think if we don't make it this time around, civilization can pick itself back up for another shot. Even difficult goals can often be attained if you get to try as many times as you want.

But the development of industrial technology was based on abundant and easily obtainable deposits of coal, oil etc. We haven't run out of those yet - but the easily obtainable deposits thereof are mostly already gone. Yes, we can imagine a future reconstruction of industrial civilization by other pathways, but would that really happen?

Nobody knows. I'd rather not try the experiment. I think we need to behave as though we have to take off on this attempt.

I worried about this for a long time, but recently I've been thinking that perhaps this isn't such a high barrier to jump.

If a form of civilization based on agriculture is maintained after the technological fallback the next time around it seems plausible that we may also have a higher IQ and be generally better adapted to life in mass society. Human brains are pretty good at finding substitute resources.

Of course Hanson would point out that the farmer forager value compromise would skew more heavily towards farmers the next time. But since I seem to have a slightly more farmer predisposition than most and counting on the seemingly reasonable presupposition that wealth will again make them more forager than might seem at first glance possible, I would be pretty ok with this scenario.

Except for its effect on the odds of my revival.