How likely do you consider it for CEV to be the first superintelligent AI to be created, compared to CEV?
Unless you're a top AI researcher working solo to create your own AI, you may have to support CEV as the best compromise possible under the circumstances. It'll probably be far closer to CEV than CEV or CEV would be.
However, CEV<$randomAIresearcher> is probably even closer to mine than CEV is... CEV is likely to be very, very far from the preferences of most decent people...
At the recent London meet-up someone (I'm afraid I can't remember who) suggested that one might be able to solve the Friendly AI problem by building an AI whose concerns are limited to some small geographical area, and which doesn't give two hoots about what happens outside that area. Cipergoth pointed out that this would probably result in the AI converting the rest of the universe into a factory to make its small area more awesome. In the process, he mentioned that you can make a "fun game" out of figuring out ways in which proposed utility functions for Friendly AIs can go horribly wrong. I propose that we play.
Here's the game: reply to this post with proposed utility functions, stated as formally or, at least, as accurately as you can manage; follow-up comments explain why a super-human intelligence built with that particular utility function would do things that turn out to be hideously undesirable.
There are three reasons I suggest playing this game. In descending order of importance, they are: