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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Rationality Outreach: A Parable - Less Wrong
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That's what Barbara says, but only if you press her. Mostly she just doesn't talk about it.
If she spontaneously announces this to the group and challenges them to a debate, believing that the truth ought to be obvious enough that anyone should be able to see it, I shall endeavor to turn her into Caroline in 15 minutes and Donna a day later.
With what probability will you anticipate success?
The most likely outcome is that she will conclude, "I guess I was wrong to think that anyone would be able to see the truth of theism." She will justify this with either "I didn't imagine that atheists would hold on to their delusions so tenaciously" or "Although the rationality of theism is still plain to me, I didn't realize how great the inferential distances could be. It takes more work than I anticipated to spell out all the details to a skeptical audience."
Higher probability than people who've despaired of theists believe is possible, still less than 50%. Keep in mind that we're starting with someone who hasn't sunk too far into belief in self-deception.
Your short time-frame made me wonder whether you might despair of her if you did not see rapid success.
Were you unable to change her from Barbara in a day, how much would that change your probability of seeing success in