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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Rationality Outreach: A Parable - Less Wrong
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Higher probability than people who've despaired of theists believe is possible, still less than 50%. Keep in mind that we're starting with someone who hasn't sunk too far into belief in self-deception.
Your short time-frame made me wonder whether you might despair of her if you did not see rapid success.
Were you unable to change her from Barbara in a day, how much would that change your probability of seeing success in