TheOtherDave comments on Rationality Outreach: A Parable - Less Wrong

24 [deleted] 17 March 2011 01:10PM

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Comment author: David_Gerard 17 March 2011 06:01:09PM *  7 points [-]

Currently trendy is the Bayesian argument, which frequently starts with asserting that the only acceptable proper and right-thinking prior probability of God is 0.5 AAAAAARGH

(The problem here being the assumption that we start knowing nothing at all rather than that we know really quite a lot - that being the bit in the argument where a negligible probability is turned into a non-negligible one.)

(Sorry, I just had lunch with some relatively sensible theists and I'm still going AAAAAARGH)

Comment author: TheOtherDave 17 March 2011 07:52:40PM 3 points [-]

I've never heard anyone seriously say that, but I don't doubt that they exist.

I'm curious what they have to say about the different beliefs of different theist traditions... that is, is the prior for each of them supposed to be .5?

Comment author: David_Gerard 17 March 2011 08:01:03PM *  1 point [-]

I need to find a written example. I believe a debate Christopher Hitchens lost against a theist involved him being waylaid by an unexpected Bayesian attack. In any case, I have an anecdotal datum that the word is out there.