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David_Gerard comments on Rationality Outreach: A Parable - Less Wrong
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Something like that - I need to find a written example of the Bayesian probability argument for God. The idea is that when you have no idea, and no basis for an idea, you have no reason to have the probability of A greater or lesser than the probability of not-A.
Note that a large part of the thrust of Dawkins' The God Delusion is to show the improbability of the God hypothesis (as stated by Dawkins) given what we know already.
The assumption that we know nothing about a question, when we actually know quite a lot, is a common way to turn a negligible probability into a non-negligible one, e.g. as I have noted before about parapsychology.
(slaps self upside of head) And, of course, there's an entire section of The God Delusion dealing with the Bayesian argument, as first popularised by Stephen Unwin in his 2003 book The Probability Of God, who - ta-dah! - started with 0.5.