actually yeah - this is a great idea.
We could probably start by coding up a simplified version of this - just to get something done... then add more fo the complex features after that.
For example a good starting point would be for phase 1 predictions to just ask a (randomised) set of multi-choice or simple write-in questions for predictions: eg "how many red squares will there be at the end? in which part of the screen will the blue circle end up?" etc.
I reckon that in the first "level" they could start by estimating a probability, rather than jumping straight into weightings of evidence? We could then introduce evidence weighting as a "level 2"? What do you think? Would that totally change the nature of what it's teaching too much?
after we've got that working, we could then figure out how to get the user to describe the ruleset to the computer in a flexible way. That's actually a Tough Problem, BTW. It's basically forming a mini-language... so definitely on the books, but probably not the first iteration. :)
after we've got that working, we could then figure out how to get the user to describe the ruleset to the computer in a flexible way. That's actually a Tough Problem, BTW. It's basically forming a mini-language... so definitely on the books, but probably not the first iteration. :)
Yeah, I realized that as I was writing the longer example, and also that it wasn't strictly necessary. Interesting, but not necessary. =)
Your description of phase 1 prediction coding is very close to what I was picturing, and having a randomized set of questions rather than ju...
We need some ideas for serious games. Games that will help us be better. Games that reward us for improving ourselves (even if just by the satisfaction of seeing our scores improve). Games that will help us in our quest of Tsoyoku Naritai
We've got an upcoming hackday in London - where we'll have a (small) bunch of people able to code up any good ideas into something usable... but we need **you** to help us come up with a whole bunch of good ideas.
To start with, they should be simple ideas - not as complex as Rationalist Clue (which is an awesome idea... but we all have dayjobs too). I've got in mind something like the kinds of games you see at luminosity
The ideas should address individual biases - a way of training us to: a) recognise when we've accidentally engaged a bias b) reward us when we find a way to get the "right answer" in an unbiased manner.
We can do the programming (more help would of course be welcome), we can even come up with some ideas of our own...
but we are few, and you are many... and the more ideas we get, the better we can choose between them... so let's roll.