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Constant comments on Crime and punishment - Less Wrong
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Good point, but technically you really want to compare like with like. Maybe prisoners would have had even more kids than they did had they not been imprisoned but allowed to lead their life of crime unpunished. In fact that seems probable. Imagine this: you are told that you belong to the control arm of such a study, which means that if you commit any crimes or other infractions, you will never be punished. What would you do and what would be the result? I, being at heart bad, very bad, would get very rich very quickly (not telling you how, but it involves being above the law), and I would have plenty of unprotected sex (with carefully selected gold diggers) without worrying about child care payments.
"Ancient prisons"? Incarceration is a relatively new development. Most punishment was corporal in the past. People were sent to jail to await trial or pay off debts. Robin Hanson can see beyond the status quo assumption that criminal punishment = prison.
A more plausible study would look like "how does early release affect fecundity rates". It is certainly true that the set of "people above the law" currently equates to "dictators" and that their reproductive success is well-documented. This may relate more to their relative power in society than to their lack of incarceration, however.
Certainly my proposal is not realistic, but amounts to a thought experiment.
Just to be clear: You are talking about a hypothetical version of yourself, and don't mean to say that the only thing currently keeping you from committing crimes is fear of punishment, right?
I am thoroughly domesticated and come when called. However, the law is out of control and makes illegal many acts which are not morally wrong (no details as that would be political), and I would have no problem ignoring those evil laws. I would get very rich, very quickly, just doing that, because ofmy competitive advantage.
However, real evil men exist and if they were above the law they would do terrible things.