Marius comments on Crime and punishment - Less Wrong
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A more plausible study would look like "how does early release affect fecundity rates". It is certainly true that the set of "people above the law" currently equates to "dictators" and that their reproductive success is well-documented. This may relate more to their relative power in society than to their lack of incarceration, however.
Certainly my proposal is not realistic, but amounts to a thought experiment.