Conversely, the idea that the only effective thing you can ever do to lower crime rates is punish criminals only makes sense if you define "punishment" to include anything that lowers crime rates.

Just to be concrete for a second: if stores S1 and S2 both have the same rate (R0) of shoplifting, and S1 implements a policy of prosecuting all shoplifters to the fullest extent of the law and its rate drops to R1, and S2 implements a policy of putting up signs everywhere with sad-looking cartoon characters with big eyes expressing various kinds of sadness over shoplifting and its rate drops to R2.

Are you asserting that:

• ...because S2's policy isn't punishment-based, it's not going to reduce the shoplifting rate, so R2 ~= R0?

• ...because S2's policy isn't punishment-based, it's not going to reduce the shoplifting rate as much as punishment does, so R2 > R1?

• ...we don't know whether S2's policy is punishment-based based on this information; if R2 <= R1 then perhaps it is?

• ...this example has nothing to do with what we're talking about?

• ...other?