komponisto comments on Sean Carroll: Does the Universe Need God? [link] - Less Wrong

15 Post author: Dreaded_Anomaly 23 March 2011 07:31PM

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Comment author: komponisto 24 March 2011 09:00:38PM 1 point [-]

there seems to be no rigorous sense of what "requiring an explanation" means in the first place.

"Requiring an explanation" means "low probability". An "explanation" is a datum such that conditioning on it makes the probability high.

You can think of probability as an "inverse surprise score" that you try to keep as high as possible. (And of course, there's no cheating.)

Comment author: wnoise 24 March 2011 10:44:56PM 0 points [-]

negative surprise log score?

Comment author: FAWS 24 March 2011 09:33:36PM *  0 points [-]

So "requiring an explanation" means "strong evidence the hypothesis space has not yet been searched for"? That seems plausible. Is this your on the spot suggestion or has it been discussed before?