Zvi comments on Verifying Rationality via RationalPoker.com - Less Wrong

32 Post author: Louie 25 March 2011 04:32PM

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Comment author: Zvi 28 March 2011 12:25:59PM 5 points [-]

A few different things going on here, but the bottom line is yes, there is a screaming opportunity for making money on easy arbitrage. You can easily and quickly make a decent living if you don't mind putting in the hours, and you can with hard work, dedication and hopefully some talent get vastly more than that.

Why don't more people do it? There are a lot of places people turn away, from the legal issues to the morality of the activity, to the low status, to the swings and need for psychological stability, to the lack of a long term plan, to the fact that poker gets boring after a while and it happens quicker if you're maximizing alpha. It also doesn't scale that well; to get past a certain point and earn top dollar you need expert-style training and talent. Marginal improvements in skill are huge over the long term in gambling.

However, I recommend that anyone who can't otherwise get a good job seriously consider poker. Gambling in general involves huge amounts of money being effectively given away, resulting in lots of low hanging fruit. Sports betting is actually even softer than poker.

Comment author: wedrifid 28 March 2011 12:54:39PM -1 points [-]

Poker machines are also a reliable source of free money in the long term. If you calculate the expected value based on accumulating jackpots and have complete control over your risk taking impulses.

Comment author: Zvi 29 March 2011 04:48:08PM 0 points [-]

They're getting better at controlling for that, and actually exploiting this is as boring as it gets, but machines with jackpots that don't max out can be worth keeping an eye on if you're in a position to do so easily.