SilasBarta comments on Real-world Newcomb-like Problems - Less Wrong
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Right, that could have been more precisely worded, but I opted for brevity with the understanding that people would know what the more precise version is. That would be something like, "...unless you feel desires to put your life and minimization of effort at risk to do things sufficiently similar to those which, in the ancestral environment, increased inclusive genetic fitness."
Yes, the relationships are probabilistic, both on the reward side, and (I should have mentioned) on the "you"-side. Likewise, Omega can guess incorrectly that you'll one-box, you may be a "never punish anyone!"-type in a society of defection-punishers, etc.