Manfred comments on Real-world Newcomb-like Problems - Less Wrong

14 Post author: SilasBarta 25 March 2011 08:44PM

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Comment author: Manfred 26 March 2011 12:41:47AM *  8 points [-]

Many of the examples are not like Newcomb's problem, but are just rephrased to use timeless decision-theory-esque language. To be like newcomb's problem you don't just want TDT to work, you want causal decision theory to not work, i.e. you want the problem to be decision-determined but not action-determined. This is more exotic, but may be approximated by situations where other people are trying to figure out your real feelings.

Comment author: SilasBarta 28 March 2011 12:40:19AM 4 points [-]

CDT doesn't statistically win in these examples: in all cases, if you reason only from what your actions cause you will be in a world where communication is statistically harder, transaction costs are statistically higher, etc. Newcomb's Problem only differs in the certainty of this relationship.