NancyLebovitz comments on The null model of science - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Johnicholas 26 March 2011 01:53PM

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Comment author: NancyLebovitz 26 March 2011 02:35:41PM 7 points [-]

I wish I could vote this up several times because of, well, confirmation bias. It's seemed to me that evolutionary psych makes a lot of stew from very little meat, and it looks as though there's even less meat than I thought-- the article says that there's much less evidence of a female preference for male symmetry than was previously believed.

Meanwhile, I wonder if some of the fading of results isn't just publication bias, it's that biological details change faster than we realize. Drugs that work for schizophrenia might stop working as well because people are eating different additives or somesuch.

A simulation hypothesis is fun, of course-- we're being toyed with and/or the program is slightly unstable.

Comment author: Will_Newsome 26 March 2011 02:43:34PM 0 points [-]

the article says that there's much less evidence of a female preference for male symmetry than was previously believed.

I totally predicted that one. Hmph. Is there a discussion post somewhere for people to post predictions? Ideally it'd be near the top of Top, if people voted it up enough. I like the idea of prediction markets but they seem cumbersome and many sorts of predictions need to be made super precise before you can bet on them, even if they wouldn't have to be that precise to be socially acknowledged as sticking their necks out.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 26 March 2011 03:04:48PM 3 points [-]

I don't know of a best place on LW, but Predictionbook.com is a handy site for publishing your predictions. IIRC, gwern is an afficiannado.

Comment author: Will_Newsome 26 March 2011 03:09:40PM -1 points [-]

Thanks! I'd wrongly assumed that all such sites were based on some sort of economic transaction.

Comment author: DanielLC 26 March 2011 09:42:32PM 0 points [-]

I've read prediction markets that use money tend to violate gambling laws.