I disagree. I suppose it may slightly increase the probability of the "more than 40" answer, but his prior expectations have to play some role. Since there would be no other real factors, the effect of his prior expectation would in my opinion shift his answer downwards, yielding the "less than 40" answer. Anchoring pulls you towards the suggested value, but I'm not sure in this case it would pull it ABOVE the suggested value, especially given the difference between his original beliefs and the anchor.