Considering that J is contributing a lot of money to truly effective charity, I think that his utility function is such that he will gain more utils from the huge amount of fun generated from his continued donations minus that by social shame minus that of ten people dying compared to J himself dying if his biases did not render him incapable of appreciating just how much fun his charity was generating. If he's very selfish, my probability estimate is raised (not above .95, but above whatever it would have been before) by the fact that most people don't want to die.
One way to find out the source of such a decision is telling them to read the Sequences, and see what they think afterwards. The question is very meaningful, because the whole point of instrumental rationality is learning how to prevent your biases from sabotaging your utility function.
So after reading SarahC's latest post I noticed that she's gotten a lot out of rationality.
More importantly, she got different things out of it than I have.
Off the top of my head, I've learned...
Where she got...
I've only recently making a habit out of trying new things, and that's been going really well for me. Is there other low hanging fruit that I'm missing?
What cool/important/useful things has rationality gotten you?