Rationality Quotes: April 2011

6 Post author: benelliott 04 April 2011 09:55AM

You all know the rules:

  • Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately.  (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments.  If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
  • Do not quote yourself.
  • Do not quote comments/posts on LW/OB.
  • No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.

Comments (384)

Sort By: Controversial
Comment author: [deleted] 04 April 2011 10:49:38PM *  0 points [-]

We ought to identify and empathize with the physical and moral order of the universe, whatever that may be, and we should help others do the same.

--William T. Vollmann

Comment author: RichardKennaway 05 April 2011 11:32:33AM 1 point [-]

moral order of the universe

The moral order is within us.

Comment author: moshez 05 April 2011 12:55:49PM 3 points [-]

And we are within the universe! So that all works out nicely.

Comment author: cousin_it 05 April 2011 09:19:18AM 9 points [-]

moral order of the universe

There's no such thing.

Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 06 April 2011 01:40:58AM 1 point [-]

We should all agree to say the same words, without too much concern for what they mean?

Comment author: mtraven 04 April 2011 10:26:26PM *  1 point [-]

The best education consists in immunizing people against systematic attempts at education.

-- Paul Feyerabend

Comment author: David_Gerard 05 April 2011 09:28:12AM *  2 points [-]

This one could do with expansion and/or contextualisation. A quick Google only turns up several pages of just the bare quote (including on a National Institue of Health .gov page!) - what was the original source? Anyone?

Comment author: mtraven 06 April 2011 02:44:57AM 2 points [-]

Well, I deliberately left out the source because I didn't think it would play well in this Peoria of thought -- it's from his book of essays Farewell to Reason. Link to gbooks with some context.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 12 April 2011 01:49:43AM *  2 points [-]

Well, I deliberately left out the source because I didn't think it would play well in this Peoria of thought -- it's from his book of essays Farewell to Reason. Link to gbooks with some context.

We've had rationality quotes before from C.S. Lewis, G.K. Chesterson, and Jack Chick among others. I don't think people are going to complain because of generic context issues even if Feyerabend did say some pretty silly stuff.

Comment author: childofbaud 07 April 2011 10:54:59PM *  0 points [-]

A true friend stabs you in the front.

—Oscar Wilde

Comment author: bisserlis 06 April 2011 05:14:07AM 0 points [-]

Son, you’re a body, son. That quick little scientific-prodigy’s mind she’s so proud of and won’t quit twittering about: son, it’s just neural spasms, those thoughts in your mind are just the sound of your head revving, and head is still just body, Jim. Commit this to memory. Head is body. Jim, brace yourself against my shoulders here for this hard news, at ten: you’re a machine a body an object, Jim, no less than this rutilant Montclair, this coil of hose here or that rake there for the front yard’s gravel or sweet Jesus this nasty fat spider flexing in its web over there up next to the rake-handle, see it?

Infinite Jest, page 159

Comment author: wobster109 10 April 2011 07:09:13AM 2 points [-]

"If you choose to follow a religion where, for example, devout Catholics who are trying to be good people are all going to Hell but child molestors go to Heaven (as long as they were "saved" at some point), that's your choice, but it's fucked up. Maybe a God who operates by those rules does exist. If so, fuck Him." --- Bill Zellar's suicide note, in regards to his parents' religion

I love this passage. If a god as described in the Bible did exist, following him would be akin to following Voldemort: fidelity simply because he was powerful. This isn't precisely a rationality quote, but it does have a bit of the morality-independent-of-religion thing. (The rest of the note is beautiful and eloquent as well.)

Comment author: MinibearRex 11 April 2011 04:37:20AM 11 points [-]

I think we should keep some sort op separation between "rationality quotes" and "atheism quotes". You can stretch this to be a rationality quote, but it does require a stretch. Just because a quote argues against the existence of a god doesn't make it particularly rational.

Comment author: ata 10 April 2011 08:04:57AM 10 points [-]

I love this passage. If a god as described in the Bible did exist, following him would be akin to following Voldemort: fidelity simply because he was powerful.

There are other similarities too. e.g. Voldemort's human form died and rose again; his (first) death was foretold in prophesy, involved a betrayal (albeit in the opposite direction), and left his followers anxiously awaiting his return; "And these signs shall follow them that believe; ... they shall speak with new tongues; They shall take up serpents..." (Mark 16:17-18); ...

So, who wants to join the First Church of Voldemort?

Comment author: knb 21 April 2011 10:48:35PM *  -1 points [-]

Procrastination is one of the most common and deadliest of diseases and its toll on success and happiness is heavy.

Also:

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

-Wayne Gretsky

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 24 April 2011 12:03:30PM 1 point [-]

Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)

Comment author: lukeprog 20 April 2011 04:50:11PM -1 points [-]

...the best lesson our readers can learn is to give up the childish notion that everything that is interesting about nature can be understood... It might be interesting to know how cognition (whatever that is) arose and spread and changed, but we cannot know. Tough luck.

Richard Lewontin

Comment author: nshepperd 21 April 2011 01:14:47AM 4 points [-]

Is this an ironic rationality quote?

Comment author: Pavitra 21 April 2011 01:19:58AM 1 point [-]

The world is allowed to be too much for you to handle. (But you should try anyway.)

Comment author: knb 21 April 2011 11:58:09PM *  6 points [-]

That isn't what the quote is saying though. It is claiming that we know for a fact that we cannot ever understand cognition. Ironically, that is itself a hubristic claim of positive knowledge about a topic (what may eventually be possible for humans to know) where we should be more modest about claims.

Comment author: Pavitra 24 April 2011 03:12:40PM 1 point [-]

Agreed.

Comment author: dares 06 April 2011 12:19:53AM 2 points [-]

Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.

—Antoine de Saint-Exupéry

Comment author: childofbaud 07 April 2011 03:46:10AM 6 points [-]

A domain-specific interpretation of the same concept:

"The real hero of programming is the one who writes negative code."

—Douglas McIlroy

Comment author: childofbaud 07 April 2011 11:10:13PM 5 points [-]

A domain-neutral interpretation of the same concept:

Entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity.

—William of Ockham

Comment author: bcoburn 06 April 2011 05:03:58AM 2 points [-]

This one really needs to have been applied to itself, "short is good" is way better.

(also this was one of EY's quotes in the original rationality quotes set, http://lesswrong.com/lw/mx/rationality_quotes_3/ )

Comment author: [deleted] 07 April 2011 01:06:47AM 3 points [-]

Perfection is lack of excess.

Comment author: dares 06 April 2011 12:37:19PM 3 points [-]

Also, "short is good" would narrow this quotes focus considerably.

Comment author: CronoDAS 06 April 2011 06:24:09AM 1 point [-]

Maybe it's shorter in French?

Comment author: komponisto 06 April 2011 06:35:47AM 5 points [-]

Compare:

Il semble que la perfection soit atteinte non quand il n'y a plus rien à ajouter, mais quand il n'y a plus rien à retrancher.

So, no.

Comment author: Davidmanheim 04 April 2011 05:17:56PM 5 points [-]

"Does it contain any abstract reasoning concerning quantity or number? No. Does it contain any experimental reasoning concerning matter of fact and existence? No. Commit it then to the flames, for it can contain nothing but sophistry and illusion."

-Hume, An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding

Comment author: wedrifid 05 April 2011 09:04:43AM 2 points [-]

Personally I enjoy illusions - some of them look pretty. I'm keeping them.

Comment author: TylerJay 05 April 2011 09:40:03PM 11 points [-]

The north went on forever. Tyrion Lannister knew the maps as well as anyone, but a fortnight on the wild track that passed for the kingsroad up here had brought home the lesson that the map was one thing and the land quite another.

--George R. R. Martin A Game of Thrones

Comment author: AdeleneDawner 24 April 2011 02:57:10AM 6 points [-]

A tadpole doesn’t know
It’s gonna grow bigger.
It just swims,
and figures limbs
are for frogs.

People don’t know
the power they hold.
They just sing hymns,
and figure saving
is for god.

  • Andrea Gibson, Tadpoles (source)
Comment author: Tiiba 06 April 2011 05:26:59AM 6 points [-]

I will repost a quote that I posted many moons ago on OB, if you don't mind. I don't THINK this breaks the rules too badly, since that post didn't get its fair share of karma. Here's the first time: http://lesswrong.com/lw/uj/rationality_quotes_18/nrt

"He knew well that fate and chance never come to the aid of those who replace action with pleas and laments. He who walks conquers the road. Let his legs grow tired and weak on the way - he must crawl on his hands and knees, and then surely, he will see in the night a distant light of hot campfires, and upon approaching, will see a merchants' caravan; and this caravan will surely happen to be going the right way, and there will be a free camel, upon which the traveler will reach his destination. Meanwhile, he who sits on the road and wallows in despair - no matter how much he cries and complains - will evoke no compassion in the soulless rocks. He will die in the desert, his corpse will become meat for foul hyenas, his bones will be buried in hot sand. How many people died prematurely, and only because they didn't love life strongly enough! Hodja Nasreddin considered such a death humiliating for a human being.

"No" - said he to himself and, gritting his teeth, repeated wrathfully: "No! I won't die today! I don't want to die!""

Comment author: djcb 05 April 2011 10:30:05AM *  3 points [-]

Make no mistake about it: Computers process numbers - not symbols. We measure our understanding (and control) by the extent to which we can arithmetize an activity.

-- Alan Perlis

Since I discovered them through SICP, I always liked the 'Perlisims' -- many of his Epigrams in Programming are pretty good. There's a hint of Searle/Chinese Room in this particular quote, but he turns it around by implying that in the end, the symbols are numbers (or that's how I read it).

Comment author: Confringus 04 April 2011 08:39:08PM *  13 points [-]

"Isn't it enough to see that a garden is beautiful without having to believe that there are fairies at the bottom of it too?"

Douglas Adams

This quote defines my approach to science and philosophy; a phenomenon can be wondrous on its own merit, it need not be magical or extraordinary to have value.

Comment author: endoself 04 April 2011 06:44:35PM 22 points [-]

Most people would rather die than think; many do.

– Bertrand Russell

Comment author: Gray 11 April 2011 05:02:59AM 4 points [-]

Not a big fan of this. Seems like you could replace the word "think" with many different adjectives, and it would sound good or bad depending on whether I think the adjective agrees with what I consider my virtue. For instance, replace "think" with "exercise", and I would like if I'm a regular exerciser, but if I'm not I'd wonder why I would want to waste my life exercising.

Comment author: newerspeak 06 April 2011 12:25:05PM *  9 points [-]

Bertrand Russell, in his Autobiography records that his rather fearsome Puritan grandmother:

gave me a Bible with her favorite texts written on the fly-leaf. Among these was "Thou shalt not follow a multitude to do evil." Her emphasis upon this text led me in later life to be not afraid of belonging to small minorities.

It's rather affecting to find the future hammer of the Christians being "confirmed" in this way. It also proves that sound maxims can appear in the least probable places.

-- Christopher Hitchens, Letters to a Young Contrarian

Comment author: Kutta 04 April 2011 05:30:05PM 9 points [-]

Theology is the effort to explain the unknowable in terms of the not worth knowing.

– Mencken, quoted in Pinker: How the Mind Works

Comment author: Apprentice 04 April 2011 03:17:38PM 14 points [-]

Virtually everything in science is ultimately circular, so the main thing is just to make the circles as big as possible.

Richard D. Janda and Brian D. Joseph, 2003, The Handbook of Historical Linguistics, p. 111.

Comment author: Kutta 04 April 2011 05:29:14PM *  18 points [-]

The correct question to ask about functions is not „What is a rule?” or „What is an association?” but „What does one have to know about a function in order to know all about it?” The answer to the last question is easy – for each number x one needs to know the number f(x) (…)

– M. Spivak: Calculus

Comment author: cousin_it 04 April 2011 12:11:00PM 33 points [-]

People commonly use the word "procrastination" to describe what they do on the Internet. It seems to me too mild to describe what's happening as merely not-doing-work. We don't call it procrastination when someone gets drunk instead of working.

-- Paul Graham

Comment author: wedrifid 04 April 2011 01:03:35PM 18 points [-]

People commonly use the word "procrastination" to describe what they do on the Internet. It seems to me too mild to describe what's happening as merely not-doing-work. We don't call it procrastination when someone gets drunk instead of working.

What exactly would Paul Graham call reading Paul Graham essays online when I should be working?

Comment author: Gray 04 April 2011 03:51:04PM 0 points [-]

I'm thinking either "lazy" or "irresponsible".

Comment author: wiresnips 04 April 2011 05:35:44PM 0 points [-]

The question of which is kind of still there, though. Procrastination is lazy, but getting drunk at work is irresponsible.

Comment author: Kutta 04 April 2011 05:33:04PM *  7 points [-]

Wisdom is easy: just find someone who trusts someone who trusts someone who trusts someone who knows the truth.

– Steven Kaas

Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 06 April 2011 01:51:24AM 1 point [-]

I really don't see the point. All I'm getting out of this is: "knowing the truth is hard".

Comment author: Kutta 06 April 2011 10:24:55AM 2 points [-]

Plus the notion that in the current world when you know the truth with some satisfactory accuracy, most of the time you get to know it not firsthand but via a chain of people. Therefore it might be said that evaulating people's trustworthiness is in the same league of importance as interpreting and analysing data yet untouched by people.

Also, to nitpick, if you find a chain of people full of very trustworthy people, knowing the truth could be relatively easy.

Comment author: rhollerith_dot_com 07 April 2011 04:07:50PM *  9 points [-]

To arrive at the simplest truth, as Newton knew and practiced, requires years of contemplation. Not activity. Not reasoning. Not calculating. Not busy behaviour of any kind. Not reading. Not talking. Not making an effort. Not thinking. Simply bearing in mind what it is one needs to know. And yet those with the courage to tread this path to real discovery are not only offered practically no guidance on how to do so, they are actively discouraged and have to set abut it in secret, pretending meanwhile to be diligently engaged in the frantic diversions and to conform with the deadening personal opinions which are continually being thrust upon them.

--George Spencer Brown in The Laws of Form, 1969.

Comment author: dares 04 April 2011 07:52:14PM 11 points [-]

“In life as in poker, the occasional coup does not necessarily demonstrate skill and superlative performance is not the ability to eliminate chance, but the capacity to deliver good outcomes over and over again. That is how we know Warren Buffett is a skilled investor and Johnny Chan a skilled poker player.” — John Kay, Financial Times

Comment author: Nick_Roy 08 April 2011 09:50:15PM *  5 points [-]

“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.”

~ Aristotle

Comment author: CronoDAS 04 April 2011 11:29:10PM 34 points [-]

From a forum signature:

The fool says in his heart, "There is no God." --Psalm 14:1

It is a fool's prerogative to utter truths that no one else will speak. --Neil Gaiman, Sandman 3:3:6

Comment author: Psy-Kosh 09 April 2011 06:50:05AM 0 points [-]

I'd suggest, however, that one who is wise had better be at least better than a fool at discerning truths, or the one who is wise isn't all that wise.

In other words, of a fool is better than a wise person at finding truths no one else can find, then there's a serious problem with our notions of foolishness and wisdom.

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 12 April 2011 01:17:01AM 2 points [-]

No idea if it's what Neil Gaiman meant, but the quote can be "rescued" by reading it like this:

It is a fool's [Person who is bad at signaling intelligence/wisdom] to utter truths that no one else will risk the status hit from speaking.

That is, the fool is as good at discerning truths as the wise man, but not as good at knowing when it's advantageous to say them or not.

Comment author: Nornagest 12 April 2011 01:31:45AM *  3 points [-]

I read the Gaiman quote as referring to "fool" in the sense of court jester, which seems to have more to do with status than intelligence although there are implications of both. Looked at that way, Psy-Kosh's objection doesn't seem to apply; it might indicate something wrong with our status criteria, but of course we already knew that.

The psalm, on the other hand, probably is talking mainly about intelligence. But the ambiguity still makes for a nice contrast.

Comment author: David_Gerard 05 April 2011 09:27:30AM 3 points [-]

Even my theist girlfriend laughed out loud at that one :-)

Comment author: gwern 09 April 2011 07:26:04PM 7 points [-]

"It has always been the prerogative of children & half-wits to point out that the emperor has no clothes. But the half-wit remains a half-wit, & the emperor remains an emperor."

Also Neil Gaiman.

Comment author: HonoreDB 04 April 2011 05:26:20PM 27 points [-]

Part of the potential of things is how they break.

Vi Hart, How To Snakes

Comment author: Manfred 04 April 2011 06:25:55PM 10 points [-]

Vi Hart is so dang awesome.

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 04 April 2011 07:14:22PM 4 points [-]

"Man, it seems like everyone has a triangle these days..."

Comment author: Emile 04 April 2011 08:19:24PM 16 points [-]

"But these two snakes can't talk because this one speaks in parseltongue and that one speaks in Python"

Damn, why didn't I discover those before ...

Comment author: atucker 06 April 2011 07:17:13AM 14 points [-]

There are these two young fish swimming along and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says "Morning, boys. How's the water?" And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes "What the hell is water?"

~ Story, used most famously in David Foster Wallace's Commencement Address at Kenyon College

Comment author: DanielVarga 04 April 2011 09:06:57PM 63 points [-]

It is not really a quote, but a good quip from an otherwise lame recent internet discussion:

Matt: Ok, for all of the people responding above who admit to not having a soul, I think this means that it is morally ok for me to do anything I want to you, just as it is morally ok for me to turn off my computer at the end of the day. Some of us do have souls, though.

Igor: Matt - I agree that people who need a belief in souls to understand the difference between killing a person and turning off a computer should just continue to believe in souls.

Comment author: David_Gerard 05 April 2011 04:49:35PM 6 points [-]
Comment author: David_Gerard 05 April 2011 09:33:24AM 8 points [-]

This is, of course, pretty much the right answer to anyone who asserts that without God, they could just kill anyone they wanted.

Comment author: matt1 05 April 2011 06:31:38PM *  -2 points [-]

Of course, my original comment had nothing to do with god. It had to do with "souls", for lack of a better term as that was the term that was used in the original discussion (suggest reading the original post if you want to know more---basically, as I understand the intent it simply referred to some hypothetical quality that is associated with consciousness that lies outside the realm of what is simulable on a Turing machine). If you think that humans are nothing but Turing machines, why is it morally wrong to kill a person but not morally wrong to turn off a computer? Please give a real answer...either provide an answer that admits that humans cannot be simulated by Turing machines, or else give your answer using only concepts relevant to Turing machines (don't talk about consciousness, qualia, hopes, whatever, unless you can precisely quantify those concepts in the language of Turing machines). And in the second case, your answer should allow me to determine where the moral balance between human and computers lies....would it be morally bad to turn off a primitive AI, for example, with intelligence at the level of a mouse?

Comment author: David_Gerard 06 April 2011 11:46:35AM 0 points [-]

Of course, my original comment had nothing to do with god.

No indeed. However, the similarity in assuming a supernatural explanation is required for morality to hold struck me.

Comment author: [deleted] 05 April 2011 07:18:41PM 68 points [-]

If you think that humans are nothing but Turing machines, why is it morally wrong to kill a person but not morally wrong to turn off a computer?

Your question has the form:

If A is nothing but B, then why is it X to do Y to A but not to do Y to C which is also nothing but B?

This following question also has this form:

If apple pie is nothing but atoms, why is it safe to eat apple pie but not to eat napalm which is also nothing but atoms?

And here's the general answer to that question: the molecules which make up apple pie are safe to eat, and the molecules which make up napalm are unsafe to eat. This is possible because these are not the same molecules.

Now let's turn to your own question and give a general answer to it: it is morally wrong to shut off the program which makes up a human, but not morally wrong to shut off the programs which are found in an actual computer today. This is possible because these are not the same programs.

At this point I'm sure you will want to ask: what is so special about the program which makes up a human, that it would be morally wrong to shut off the program? And I have no answer for that. Similarly, I couldn't answer you if you asked me why the molecules of apple pie are safe to eat and the those of napalm are not.

As it happens, chemistry and biology have probably advanced to the point at which the question about apple pie can be answered. However, the study of mind/brain is still in its infancy, and as far as I know, we have not advanced to the equivalent point. But this doesn't mean that there isn't an answer.

Comment author: Alicorn 05 April 2011 07:37:52PM 3 points [-]

I love this comment. Have a cookie.

Comment author: Clippy 05 April 2011 07:43:55PM 1 point [-]

Why not napalm?

Comment author: gwern 09 April 2011 07:21:41PM 3 points [-]

It's greasy and will stain your clothes.

Comment author: cousin_it 05 April 2011 07:41:38PM 3 points [-]

Agreed. Constant, have another one on me. Alicorn, it's ironic that the first time I saw this reply pattern was in Yvain's comment to one of your posts.

Comment author: matt1 05 April 2011 08:35:49PM *  5 points [-]

This is a fair answer. I disagree with it, but it is fair in the sense that it admits ignorance. The two distinct points of view are that (mine) there is something about human consciousness that cannot be explained within the language of Turing machines and (yours) there is something about human consciousness that we are not currently able to explain in terms of Turing machines. Both people at least admit that consciousness has no explanation currently, and absent future discoveries I don't think there is a sure way to tell which one is right.

I find it hard to fully develop a theory of morality consistent with your point of view. For example, would it be wrong to (given a computer simulation of a human mind) run that simulation through a given painful experience over and over again? Let us assume that the painful experience has happened once...I just ask whether it would be wrong to rerun that experience. After all, it is just repeating the same deterministic actions on the computer, so nothing seems to be wrong about this. Or, for example, if I make a backup copy of such a program, and then allow that backup to run for a short period of time under slightly different stimuli, at which point does that copy acquire an existence of its own, that would make it wrong to delete that copy in favor of the original? I could give many other similar questions, and my point is not that your point of view denies a morality, but rather that I find it hard to develop a full theory of morality that is internally consistent and that matches your assumptions (not that developing a full theory of morality under my assumptions is that much easier).

Among professional scientists and mathematicians, I have encountered both viewpoints: those who hold it obvious to anyone with even the simplest knowledge that Turing machines cannot be conscious, and those who hold that the opposite it true. Mathematicians seem to lean a little more toward the first viewpoint than other disciplines, but it is a mistake to think that a professional, world-class research level, knowledge of physics, neuroscience, mathematics, or computer science necessarily inclines one towards the soulless viewpoint.

Comment author: matt1 05 April 2011 10:14:11PM *  1 point [-]

btw, I'm fully aware that I'm not asking original questions or having any truly new thoughts about this problem. I just hoped maybe someone would try to answer these old questions given that they had such confidence in their beliefs.

Comment author: pjeby 06 April 2011 04:02:20PM 10 points [-]

I just hoped maybe someone would try to answer these old questions given that they had such confidence in their beliefs.

This website has an entire two-year course of daily readings that precisely identifies which parts are open questions, and which ones are resolved, as well as how to understand why certain of your questions aren't even coherent questions in the first place.

This is why you're in the same position as a creationist who hasn't studied any biology - you need to actually study this, and I don't mean, "skim through looking for stuff to argue with", either.

Because otherwise, you're just going to sit there mocking the answers you get, and asking silly questions like why are there still apes if we evolved from apes... before you move on to arguments about why you shouldn't have to study anything, and that if you can't get a simple answer about evolution then it must be wrong.

However, just as in the evolutionary case, just as in the earth-being-flat case, just as in the sun-going-round-the-world case, the default human intuitions about consciousness and identity are just plain wrong...

And every one of the subjects and questions you're bringing up, has premises rooted in those false intuitions. Until you learn where those intuitions come from, why our particular neural architecture and evolutionary psychology generates them, and how utterly unfounded in physical terms they are, you'll continue to think about consciousness and identity "magically", without even noticing that you're doing it.

This is why, in the world at large, these questions are considered by so many to be open questions -- because to actually grasp the answers requires that you be able to fully reject certain categories of intuition and bias that are hard-wired into human brains

(And which, incidentally, have a large overlap with the categories of intuition that make other supernatural notions so intuitively appealing to most human beings.)

Comment author: Emile 07 April 2011 06:43:57AM 5 points [-]

I find it hard to fully develop a theory of morality consistent with your point of view. For example, would it be wrong to (given a computer simulation of a human mind) run that simulation through a given painful experience over and over again? [...]

I agree that such moral questions are difficult - but I don't see how the difficulty of such questions could constitute evidence about whether a program can "be conscious" or "have a soul" (whatever those mean) or be morally relevant (which has the advantage of being less abstract a concept).

You can ask those same questions without mentioning Turing Machines: what if we have a device capable of making a perfect copy of any physical object, down to each individual quark? Is it morally wrong to kill such a copy of a human? Does the answer to that question have any relevance to the question of whether building such a device is physically possible?

To me, it sounds a bit like saying that since our protocol for seating people around a table are meaningless in zero gravity, then people cannot possibly live in zero gravity.

Comment author: scav 06 April 2011 12:40:00PM 6 points [-]

I find it hard to fully develop a theory of morality consistent with your point of view.

I am sceptical of your having a rigorous theory of morality. If you do have one, I am sceptical that it would be undone by accepting the proposition that human consciousness is computable.

I don't have one either, but I also don't have any reason to believe in the human meat-computer performing non-computable operations. I actually believe in God more than I believe in that :)

Comment author: sark 05 April 2011 09:44:29PM 4 points [-]

Hmm, I don't happen to find your argument very convincing. I mean, what it does is to pay attention to some aspect of the original mistaken statement, then find another instance sharing that aspect which is transparently ridiculous.

But is this sufficient? You can model the statement "apples and oranges are good fruits" in predicate logic as "for all x, Apple(x) or Orange(x) implies Good(x)" or in propositional logic as "A and O" or even just "Z". But it should really depend on what aspect of the original statement you want to get at. You want a model which captures precisely those aspects you want to work with.

So your various variables actually confused the hell outta me there. I was trying to match them up with the original statement and your reductio example. All the while not really understanding which was relevant to the confusion. It wasn't a pleasant experience :(

It seems to me much simpler to simply answer: "Turing machine-ness has no bearing on moral worth". This I think gets straight to the heart of the matter, and isolates clearly the confusion in the original statement.

Or further guess at the source of the confusion, the person was trying to think along the lines of: "Turing machines, hmm, they look like machines to me, so all Turing machines are just machines, like a sewing machine, or my watch. Hmm, so humans are Turing machines, but by my previous reasoning this implies humans are machines. And hmm, furthermore, machines don't have moral worth... So humans don't have moral worth! OH NOES!!!"

Your argument seems like one of those long math proofs which I can follow step by step but cannot grasp its overall structure or strategy. Needless to say, such proofs aren't usually very intuitively convincing.

(but I could be generalizing from one example here)

Comment author: matt1 05 April 2011 10:06:51PM *  -1 points [-]

No, I was not trying to think along those lines. I must say, I worried in advance that discussing philosophy with people here would be fruitless, but I was lured over by a link, and it seems worse than I feared. In case it isn't clear, I'm perfectly aware what a Turing machine is; incidentally, while I'm not a computer scientist, I am a professional mathematical physicist with a strong interest in computation, so I'm not sitting around saying "OH NOES" while being ignorant of the terms I'm using. I'm trying to highlight one aspect of an issue that appears in many cases: if consciousness (meaning whatever we mean when we say that humans have consciousness) is possible for Turing machines, what are the implications if we do any of the obvious things? (replaying, turning off, etc...) I haven't yet seen any reasonable answer, other than 1) this is too hard for us to work out, but someday perhaps we will understand it (the original answer, and I think a good one in its acknowledgment of ignorance, always a valid answer and a good guide that someone might have thought about things) and 2) some pointless and wrong mocking (your answer, and I think a bad one). edit to add: forgot, of course, to put my current guess as to most likely answer, 3) that consciousness isn't possible for Turing machines.

Comment author: matt1 05 April 2011 10:19:38PM 1 point [-]

btw, I'm fully aware that I'm not asking original questions or having any truly new thoughts about this problem. I just hoped maybe someone would try to answer these old questions given that they had such confidence in their beliefs.

Comment author: jschulter 08 April 2011 10:52:26PM *  3 points [-]

Another option:

  • it's morally acceptable to terminate a conscious program if it wants to be terminated

  • it's morally questionable(wrong, but to lesser degree) to terminate a conscious program against its will if it is also possible to resume execution

  • it is horribly wrong to turn off a conscious program against its will if it cannot be resumed(murder fits this description currently)

  • performing other operations on the program that it desires would likely be morally acceptable, unless the changes are socially unacceptable

  • performing other operations on the program against its will is morally unacceptable to a variable degree (brainwashing fits in this category)

These seem rather intuitive to me, and for the most part I just extrapolated from what it is moral to do to a human. Conscious program refers here to one running on any system, including wetware, such that these apply to humans as well. I should note that I am in favor of euthanasia in many cases, in case that part causes confusion.

Comment author: Kyre 06 April 2011 06:18:23AM 4 points [-]

Can you expand on why you expect human moral intuition to give reasonably clear answers when applied to situations involving conscious machines ?

Comment author: Nominull 06 April 2011 12:23:14AM 1 point [-]

If you think 1 is the correct answer, you should be aware that this website is for people who do not wait patiently for a someday where we might have an understanding. One of the key teachings of this website is to reach out and grab an understanding with your own two hands. And you might add a 4 to that list, "death threats", which does not strike me as the play either.

Comment author: matt1 06 April 2011 01:02:17AM *  4 points [-]

You should be aware that in many cases, the sensible way to proceed is to be aware of the limits of your knowledge. Since the website preaches rationality, it's worth not assigning probabilities of 0% or 100% to things which you really don't know to be true or false. (btw, I didn't say 1) is the right answer, I think it's reasonable, but I think it's 3) )

And sometimes you do have to wait for an answer. For a lesson from math, consider that Fermat had flat out no hope of proving his "last theorem", and it required a couple hundred years of apparently unrelated developments to get there....one could easily give a few hundred examples of that sort of thing in any hard science which has a long enough history.

Comment author: Nominull 06 April 2011 03:31:01AM 6 points [-]

Uh I believe you will find that Fermat in fact had a truly marvelous proof of his last theorem? The only thing he was waiting on was the invention of a wider margin.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 06 April 2011 02:04:33PM 8 points [-]

Little-known non-fact: there were wider margins available at the time, but it was not considered socially acceptable to use them for accurate proofs, or more generally for true statements at all; they were merely wide margins for error.

Comment author: pjeby 06 April 2011 12:04:48AM *  8 points [-]

if consciousness (meaning whatever we mean when we say that humans have consciousness) is possible for Turing machines,

This is the part where you're going astray, actually. We have no reason to think that human beings are NOT Turing-computable. In other words, human beings almost certainly are Turing machines.

Therefore, consciousness -- whatever we mean when we say that -- is indeed possible for Turing machines.

To refute this proposition, you'd need to present evidence of a human being performing an operation that can't be done by a Turing machine.

Understanding this will help "dissolve" or "un-ask" your question, by removing the incorrect premise (that humans are not Turing machines) that leads you to ask your question.

That is, if you already know that humans are a subset of Turing machines, then it makes no sense to ask what morally justifies treating them differently than the superset, or to try to use this question as a way to justify taking them out of the larger set.

IOW, (the set of humans) is a subset of (the set of turing machines implementing consciousness), which in turn is a proper subset of (the set of turing machines). Obviously, there's a moral issue where the first two subsets are concerned, but not for (the set of turing machines not implementing consciousness).

In addition, there may be some issues as to when and how you're doing the turning off, whether they'll be turned back on, whether consent is involved, etc... but the larger set of "turing machines" is obviously not relevant.

I hope that you actually wanted an answer to your question; if so, this is it.

(In the event you wish to argue for another answer being likely, you'll need to start with some hard evidence that human behavior is NOT being Turing-computable... and that is a tough road to climb. Essentially, you're going to end up in zombie country.)

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 06 April 2011 12:48:55AM 0 points [-]

To refute this proposition, you'd need to present evidence of a human being performing an operation that can't be done by a Turing machine.

That's quite easy: I can lift a rock, a Turing machine can't. A Turing machine can only manipulate symbols on a strip of tape, it can't do anything else that's physical.

Your claim that consciousness (whatever we mean when we say that) is possible for Turing machines, rests on the assumption that consciousness is about computation alone, not about computation+some unidentified physical reaction that's absent to pure Turing machines resting in a box on a table.

That consciousness is about computation alone may indeed end up true, but it's as yet unproven.

Comment author: pjeby 06 April 2011 12:55:09AM *  0 points [-]

I can lift a rock, a Turing machine can't. A Turing machine can only manipulate symbols on a strip of tape, it can't do anything else that's physical.

So... you support euthanasia for quadriplegics, then, or anyone else who can't pick up a rock? Or people who are so crippled they can only communicate by reading and writing braille on a tape, and rely on other human beings to feed them and take care of them?

Your claim that consciousness (whatever we mean when we say that) is possible for Turing machines, rests on the assumption that consciousness is about computation alone, not about computation+some unidentified physical reaction that's absent to pure Turing machines resting in a box on a table.

This "unidentified physical reaction" would also need to not be turing-computable to have any relevance. Otherwise, you're just putting forth another zombie-world argument.

At this point, we have no empirical reason to think that this unidentified mysterious something has any existence at all, outside of a mere intuitive feeling that it "must" be so.

And so, all we have are thought experiments that rest on using slippery word definitions to hide where the questions are being begged, presented as intellectual justification for these vague intuitions... like arguments for why the world must be flat or the sun must go around the earth, because it so strongly looks and feels that way.

(IOW, people try to prove that their intuitions or opinions must have some sort of physical form, because those intuitions "feel real". The error arises from concluding that the physical manifestation must therefore exist "out there" in the world, rather than in their own brains.)

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 06 April 2011 01:12:22AM *  0 points [-]

This "unidentified physical reaction" would also need to not be turing-computable to have any relevance. Otherwise, you're just putting forth another zombie-world argument.

A zombie-world seems extremely improbable to have evolved naturally, (evolved creatures coincidentally speaking about their consciousness without actually being conscious), but I don't see why a zombie-world couldn't be simulated by a programmer who studied how to compute the effects of consciousness, without actually needing to have the phenomenon of consciousness itself.

The same way you don't need to have an actual solar system inside your computer, in order to compute the orbits of the planets -- but it'd be very unlikely to have accidentally computed them correctly if you hadn't studied the actual solar system.

At this point, we have no empirical reason to think that this unidentified mysterious something has any existence at all, outside of a mere intuitive feeling that it "must" be so.

Do you have any empirical reason to think that consciousness is about computation alone? To claim Occam's razor on this is far from obvious, as the only examples of consciousness (or talking about consciousness) currently concern a certain species of evolved primate with a complex brain, and some trillions of neurons, all of which have have chemical and electrical effects, they aren't just doing computations on an abstract mathematical universe sans context.

Unless you assume the whole universe is pure mathematics, so there's no difference between the simulation of a thing and the thing itself. Which means there's no difference between the mathematical model of a thing and the thing itself. Which means the map is the territory. Which means Tegmark IV.

And Tegmark IV is likewise just a possibility, not a proven thing.

Comment author: Gray 06 April 2011 04:09:12PM 2 points [-]

That's quite easy: I can lift a rock, a Turing machine can't. A Turing machine can only manipulate symbols on a strip of tape, it can't do anything else that's physical.

I think you're trivializing the issue. A Turing machine is an abstraction, it isn't a real thing. The claim that a human being is a Turing machine means that, in the abstract, a certain aspect of human beings can be modeled as a Turing machine. Conceptually, it might be the case, for instance, that the universe itself can be modeled as a Turing machine, in which case it is true that a Turing machine can lift a rock.

Comment author: matt1 06 April 2011 01:04:16AM 0 points [-]

thanks. my point exactly.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 06 April 2011 09:18:12PM 2 points [-]

Read the first part of ch.2 of "Good and Real".

Comment author: Perplexed 07 April 2011 03:25:35PM 2 points [-]

Could you clarify why you think that this reading assignment illuminates the question being discussed? I just reread it. For the most part, it is an argument against dualism. It argues that consciousness is (almost certainly) reducible to a physical process.

But this doesn't have anything to do with what ArisKatsaris wrote. He was questioning whether consciousness can be reduced to a purely computational process (without "some unidentified physical reaction that's absent to pure Turing machines".)

Consider the following argument sketch:

  1. Consciousness can be reduced to a physical process.
  2. Any physical process can be abstracted as a computation.
  3. Any computation can be modeled as a Turing Machine computation.
  4. Therefore, consciousness can be produced on a TM.

Each step above is at least somewhat problematic. Matt1 seemed to be arguing against step 1, and Drescher does respond to that. But ArisKatsaris seemed to be arguing against step 2. My choice would be to expand the definition of 'computation' slightly to include the interactive, asynchronous, and analog, so that I accept step 2 but deny step 3. Over the past decade, Wegner and Goldin have published many papers arguing that computation != TM.

It may well be that you can only get consciousness if you have a non-TM computation (mind) embedded in a system of sensors and actuators (body) which itself interacts with and is embedded in within a (simulated?) real-time environment. That is, when you abstract the real-time interaction away, leaving only a TM computation, you have abstracted away an essential ingredient of consciousness.

Comment author: AlephNeil 06 April 2011 07:26:04PM 7 points [-]

That's quite easy: I can lift a rock, a Turing machine can't.

That sounds like a parody of bad anti-computationalist arguments. To see what's wrong with it, consider the response: "Actually you can't lift a rock either! All you can do is send signals down your spinal column."

That consciousness is about computation alone may indeed end up true, but it's as yet unproven.

What sort of evidence would persuade you one way or the other?

Comment author: matt1 06 April 2011 12:59:04AM 0 points [-]

You wrote: "This is the part where you're going astray, actually. We have no reason to think that human beings are NOT Turing-computable. In other words, human beings almost certainly are Turing machines."

at this stage, you've just assumed the conclusion. you've just assumed what you want to prove.

"Therefore, consciousness -- whatever we mean when we say that -- is indeed possible for Turing machines."

having assumed that A is true, it is easy to prove that A is true. You haven't given an argument.

"To refute this proposition, you'd need to present evidence of a human being performing an operation that can't be done by a Turing machine."

It's not my job to refute the proposition. Currently, as far as I can tell, the question is open. If I did refute it, then my (and several other people's) conjecture would be proven. But if I don't refute it, that doesn't mean your proposition is true, it just means that it hasn't yet been proven false. Those are quite different things, you know.

Comment author: nshepperd 06 April 2011 02:38:19AM 6 points [-]

Well, how about this: physics as we know it can be approximated arbitrarily closely by a computable algorithm (and possibly computed directly as well, although I'm less sure about that. Certainly all calculations we can do involving manipulation of symbols are computable). Physics as we know it also seems to be correct to extremely precise degrees anywhere apart from inside a black hole.

Brains are physical things. Now when we consider that thermal noise should have more of an influence than the slight inaccuracy in any computation, what are the chances a brain does anything non-computable that could have any relevance to consciousness? I don't expect to see black holes inside brains, at least.

In any case, your original question was about the moral worth of turing machines, was it not? We can't use "turing machines can't be conscious" as excuse not to worry about those moral questions, because we aren't sure whether turing machines can be conscious. "It doesn't feel like they should be" isn't really a strong enough argument to justify doing something that would result in, for example, the torture of conscious entities if we were incorrect.

So here's my actual answer to your question: as a rule of thumb, act as if any simulation of "sufficient fidelity" is as real as you or I (well, multiplied by your probability that such a simulation would be conscious, maybe 0.5, for expected utilities). This means no killing, no torture, etc.

'Course, this shouldn't be a practical problem for a while yet, and we may have learned more by the time we're creating simulations of "sufficient fidelity".

Comment author: KrisC 06 April 2011 06:43:48AM 3 points [-]

what is so special about the program which makes up a human, that it would be morally wrong to shut off the program?

Is it sufficient to say that humans are able to consider the question? That humans possess an ability to abstract patterns from experience so as to predict upcoming events, and that exercise of this ability leads to a concept of self as a future agent.

Is it necessary that this model of identity incorporate relationships with peers? I think so but am not sure. Perhaps it is only necessary that the ability to abstract be recursive.

Comment author: NickiH 05 April 2011 08:10:20PM 16 points [-]

what is so special about the program which makes up a human, that it would be morally wrong to shut off the program?

We haven't figured out how to turn it back on again. Once we do, maybe it will become morally ok to turn people off.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 06 April 2011 11:34:22AM 5 points [-]

Because people are really annoying, but we need to be able to live with each other.

We need strong inhibitions against killing each other-- there are exceptions (self-defense, war), but it's a big win if we can pretty much trust each other not to be deadly.

We'd be a lot more cautious about turning off computers if they could turn us off in response.

None of this is to deny that turning off a computer is temporary and turning off a human isn't. Note that people are more inhibited about destroying computers (though much less so than about killing people) than they are about turning computers off.

Comment author: Laoch 05 April 2011 11:11:28PM 4 points [-]

Doesn't general anesthetic count? I thought that was the turning off of the brain. I was completely "out" when I had it administered to me.

Comment author: David_Gerard 05 April 2011 11:14:56PM 0 points [-]

And people don't worry about that because it's one people are used to the idea of coming back from, which fits the expressed theory.

Comment author: Kevin723 09 April 2011 05:01:14PM 4 points [-]

if i believed when i turned off my computer it would need to be monitered by a specialist or it might not ever come back on again, i would be hesitant to turn it off as well

Comment author: gwern 09 April 2011 06:09:02PM 2 points [-]

And indeed, mainframes & supercomputers are famous for never shutting down or doing so on timespans measured in decades and with intense supervision on the rare occasion that they do.

Comment author: Desrtopa 05 April 2011 11:17:56PM *  4 points [-]

It certainly doesn't put a halt to brain activity. You might not be aware of anything that's going on while you're under, or remember anything afterwards (although some people do,) but that doesn't mean that your brain isn't doing anything. If you put someone under general anesthetic under an electroencephalogram, you'd register plenty of activity.

Comment author: Laoch 06 April 2011 08:24:54AM 1 point [-]

Ah yes, didn't think of that. Even while I'm concious my brain is doing things I'm/it's not aware of.

Comment author: JohannesDahlstrom 07 April 2011 05:58:43PM 5 points [-]

Some deep hypothermia patients, however, have been successfully revived from a prolonged state of practically no brain activity whatsoever.

Comment author: kurokikaze 11 April 2011 11:42:02AM 1 point [-]

There's one more aspect to that. You are "morally ok" to turn off only your own computer. Messing with other people stuff is "morally bad". And I don't think you can "own" self-aware machine more that you can "own" a human being.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 11 April 2011 01:08:46PM 3 points [-]

So, as long as we're going down this road: it seems to follow from this that if someone installs, without my permission, a self-aware algorithm on my computer, the computer is no longer mine... it is, rather, an uninvited intruder in my home, consuming my electricity and doing data transfer across my network connection.

So I've just had my computer stolen, and I'm having my electricity and bandwidth stolen on an ongoing basis. And maybe it's playing Jonathan Coulton really loudly on its speakers or otherwise being obnoxious.

But I can't kick it out without unplugging it, and unplugging it is "morally bad." So, OK... is it "morally OK" to put it on a battery backup and wheel it to the curb, then let events take their natural course? I'm still out a computer that way, but at least I get my network back. (Or is it "morally bad" to take away the computer's network access, also?)

More generally, what recourse do I have? Is it "morally OK" for me to move to a different house and shut off the utilities? Am I obligated, on your view, to support this computer to the day I die?

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 12 April 2011 01:11:20AM 2 points [-]

I consider this scenario analogous to one in which somebody steals your computer and also leaves a baby in a basket on your doormat.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 12 April 2011 02:20:11AM 2 points [-]

Except we don't actually believe that most babies have to be supported by their parents in perpetuity... at some point, we consider that the parents have discharged their responsibility and if the no-longer-baby is still incapable of arranging to be fed regularly, it becomes someone else's problem. (Perhaps its own, perhaps a welfare system of some sort, etc.) Failing to continue to support my 30-year-old son isn't necessarily seen as a moral failing.

Comment author: Alicorn 12 April 2011 02:46:16AM 1 point [-]

Barring disability.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 12 April 2011 03:01:39AM 1 point [-]

(nods) Hence "most"/"necessarily." Though I'll admit, my moral intuitions in those cases are muddled... I'm really not sure what I want to say about them.

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 12 April 2011 02:06:11PM 0 points [-]

Perhaps the computer will eventually become mature enough to support verself, at which point it has no more claim on your resources. Otherwise, ve's a disabled child and the ethics of that situation applies.

Comment author: DanielVarga 06 April 2011 10:09:59AM 2 points [-]

Hi Matt, thanks for dropping by. Here is an older comment of mine that tries to directly address what I consider the hardest of your questions: How to distinguish from the outside between two computational processes, one conscious, the other not. I'll copy it here for convenience. Most of the replies to you here can be safely considered Less Wrong consensus opinion, but I am definitely not claiming that about my reply.

I start my answer with a Minsky quote:

"Consciousness is overrated. What we call consciousness now is a very imperfect summary in one part of the brain of what the rest is doing." - Marvin Minsky

I believe with Minsky that consciousness is a very anthropocentric concept, inheriting much of the complexity of its originators. I actually have no problem with an anthropocentric approach to consciousness, so I like the following intuitive "definition": X is conscious if it is not silly to ask "what is it like to be X?". The subtle source of anthropocentrism here, of course, is that it is humans who do the asking. As materialists, we just can't formalize this intuitive definition without mapping specific human brain functions to processes of X. In short, we inherently need human neuroscience. So it is not too surprising that we will not find a nice, clean decision procedure to distinguish between two computational processes, one conscious the other not.

Most probably you are not happy with this anthropocentric approach. Then you will have to distill some clean, mathematically tractable concept from the messy concept of consciousness. If you agree with Hofstadter and Minsky, then you will probably reach something related to self-reflection. This may or may not work, but I believe that you will lose the spirit of the original concept during such a formalization. Your decision procedure will probably give unexpected results for many things: various simple, very unintelligent computer programs, hive minds, and maybe even rooms full of people.

This ends my old comment, and I will just add a footnote related to ethical implications. With HonoreDB, I can in principle imagine a world with cooperating and competing agents, some conscious, others not, but otherwise having similar negotiating power. I believe that the ethical norms emerging in this imagined world would not even mention consciousness. If you want to build an ethical system for humans, you can "arbitrarily" decide that protecting consciousness is a terminal value. Why not? But if you want to build a non-anthropocentric ethical system, you will see that the question of consciousness is orthogonal to its issues.

Comment author: HonoreDB 06 April 2011 06:45:13AM 4 points [-]

I like Constant's reply, but it's also worth emphasizing that we can't solve scientific problems by interrogating our moral intuitions. The categories we instinctively sort things into are not perfectly aligned with reality.

Suppose we'd evolved in an environment with sophisticated 2011-era artificially intelligent Turing-computable robots--ones that could communicate their needs to humans, remember and reward those who cooperated, and attack those who betrayed them. I think it's likely we'd evolve to instinctively think of them as made of different stuff than anything we could possibly make ourselves, because that would be true for millions of years. We'd evolve to feel moral obligations toward them, to a point, because that would be evolutionarily advantageous, to a point. Once we developed philosophy, we might take this moral feeling as evidence that they're not Turing-computable--after all, we don't have any moral obligations to a mere mass of tape.

Comment author: Nominull 06 April 2011 03:40:18AM 24 points [-]

using the word “science” in the same way you’d use the word “alakazam” doesn’t count as being smarter

-Kris Straub, Chainsawsuit artist commentary

Comment author: RichardKennaway 04 April 2011 10:45:00AM 24 points [-]

I recently posted these in another thread, but I think they're worth putting here to stand on their own:

"Magic is just a way of saying 'I don't know.'"

Terry Pratchett, "Nation"

The essence of magic is to do away with underlying mechanisms. ... What makes the elephant disappear is the movement of the wand and the intent of the magician, directly. If there were any intervening processes, it would not be magic but just engineering. As soon as you know how the magician made the elephant disappear, the magic disappears and -- if you started by believing in magic -- the disappointment sets in.

William T. Powers (CSGNET mailing list, April 2005)

Comment author: Alicorn 07 April 2011 03:08:53AM *  73 points [-]

When confronting something which may be either a windmill or an evil giant, what question should you be asking?

There are some who ask, "If we do nothing, and that is an evil giant, can we afford to be wrong?" These people consider themselves to be brave and vigilant.

Some ask "If we attack it wrongly, can we afford to pay to replace a windmill?" These people consider themselves cautious and pragmatic.

Still others ask, "With the cost of being wrong so high in either case, shouldn't we always definitively answer the 'windmill vs. giant' question before we act?" And those people consider themselves objective and wise.

But only a tiny few will ask, "Isn't the fact that we're giving equal consideration to the existence of evil giants and windmills a warning sign of insanity in ourselves?"

It's hard to find out what these people consider themselves, because they never get invited to parties.

-- PartiallyClips, "Windmill"

Comment author: wedrifid 07 April 2011 04:16:09AM 1 point [-]

Best quote I've seen in a long time!

Comment author: James_K 07 April 2011 05:24:48AM 2 points [-]

That is truly incredible, I regret only that I have but one upvote to give.

Comment author: JGWeissman 07 April 2011 03:13:04AM 16 points [-]

But only a tiny few will ask, "Isn't the fact that we're giving equal consideration to the existence of evil giants and windmills a warning sign of insanity in ourselves?"

And then there's the fact that we are giving much more consideration to the existence of evil giants than to the existence of good giants.

Comment author: ZoneSeek 09 April 2011 12:54:09AM 5 points [-]

I thought the correct response should be "Is the thing in fact a giant or a windmill?" Rather than considering which way our maps should be biased, what's the actual territory?

I do tech support, and often get responses like "I think so," and I usually respond with "Let's find out."

Comment author: Nornagest 09 April 2011 01:00:14AM 6 points [-]

Giant/windmill differentiation is not a zero-cost operation.

Comment author: shokwave 09 April 2011 01:39:00AM 2 points [-]

In the "evil giant vs windmill" question, the prior probability of it being an evil giant is vanishingly close to zero, and the prior probability of it being a windmill is pretty much one minus the chance that it's an evil giant. Spending effort discovering the actual territory when every map ever shows it's a windmill sounds like a waste of effort.

Comment author: Psy-Kosh 09 April 2011 01:41:44AM 3 points [-]

What about a chunk of probability for the case of where it's neither giant nor windmill?

Comment author: shokwave 09 April 2011 02:40:47AM *  3 points [-]

Very few things barring the evil giant have the ability to imitate a windmill. I did leave some wiggle room with

prior probability of it being a windmill is pretty much one minus the chance that it's an evil giant

because I wished to allow for the chance it may be a bloody great mimic.

Comment author: Psy-Kosh 09 April 2011 06:29:08AM 11 points [-]

A missile silo disguised as a windmill? A helicopter in an unfortunate position? An odd and inefficient form of rotating radar antenna? A shuttle in launch position? (if one squints, they might think it's a broken windmill with the vanes having fallen off or something)

These are all just off the top of my head. Remember, if we're talking about someone who tends to, when they see a windmill, be unsure whether it's a windmill or an evil giant, there's probably a reasonable chance that they tend to get confused by other objects too, right? :)

Comment author: benelliott 10 April 2011 11:04:59AM 4 points [-]

A good giant?

Comment author: Psy-Kosh 10 April 2011 04:18:26PM 8 points [-]

Sure, but I wouldn't give a "good giant" really any more probability than an "evil giant". Both fall into the "completely negligible" hole. :)

Though, as we all know, if we do find one, the correct action to take is to climb up so that one can stand on its shoulders. :)

Comment author: benelliott 10 April 2011 04:54:37PM 4 points [-]

I thought we were listing anything at least as plausible as the evil giant hypothesis. I have no information as the morality distribution of giants in general so I use maximum entropy and assign 'evil giant' and 'good giant' equal probability.

Comment author: ata 10 April 2011 06:23:27PM *  10 points [-]

Given complexity of value, 'evil giant' and 'good giant' should not be weighted equally; if we have no specific information about the morality distribution of giants, then as with any optimization process, 'good' is a much, much smaller target than 'evil' (if we're including apparently-human-hostile indifference).

Unless we believe them to be evolutionarily close to humans, or to have evolved under some selection pressures similar to those that produced morality, etc., in which we can do a bit better than a complexity prior for moral motivations.

(For more on this, check out my new blog, Overcoming Giants.)

Comment author: wedrifid 09 April 2011 08:34:39AM *  3 points [-]

Or, possibly, a great big fan! In fact with some (unlikely) designs it would be impossible to tell whether it was a fan or a windmill without knowledge of what is on the other end of the connected power lines.

Comment author: shokwave 09 April 2011 06:31:45AM 5 points [-]

You are right! Even I, firmly settled in the fourth camp, was tricked by the false dichotomy of windmill and evil giant.

Comment author: Psy-Kosh 09 April 2011 06:41:11AM 3 points [-]

To be fair, there's also the possibility that someone disguised a windmill as an evil giant. ;)

Comment author: JGWeissman 09 April 2011 01:23:07AM 2 points [-]

I thought the correct response should be "Is the thing in fact a giant or a windmill?"

Do you consider yourself "objective and wise"?

Comment author: ZoneSeek 10 April 2011 03:45:39AM 2 points [-]

I'd consider myself puzzled. Unidientified object, is it a threat, a potential asset, some kind of Black Swan? Might need to do something even without positive identification. Will probably need to do something to get a better read on the thing.

Comment author: [deleted] 07 April 2011 05:36:49AM 7 points [-]

Nancy Lebovitz came across this too.

Comment author: Alicorn 07 April 2011 05:49:14PM 4 points [-]

Well, I guess that's information about how many people click links and upvote the comments that contained them based on the quality of the linked content.

Comment author: JGWeissman 07 April 2011 05:55:24PM 5 points [-]

Not to argue that transcribing the text of the comic isn't valuable (I do actually appreciate it), but it's also information about how many people go back and vote on comments from posts imported from OB.

Comment author: benelliott 07 April 2011 11:09:23PM 1 point [-]

And about how much more readers quotes threads seem to get compared with everything else.

Comment author: Risto_Saarelma 04 April 2011 01:03:01PM 30 points [-]

My friend, Tony, does prop work in Hollywood. Before he was big and famous, he would sell jewelry and such at Ren Faires and the like. One day I'm there, shooting the shit with him, when a guy comes up and looks at some of the crystals that Tony is selling. he finally zeroes in on one and gets all gaga over the bit of quartz. He informs Tony that he's never seen such a strong power crystal. Tony tells him it a piece of quartz. The buyer maintains it is an amazing power crystal and demands to know the price. Tony looks him over for a second, then says "If it's just a piece of quartz, it's $15. If it's a power crystal, it's $150. Which is is?" The buyer actually looked a bit sheepish as he said quietly "quartz", gave Tony his money and wandered off. I wonder if he thought he got the better of Tony.

-- genesplicer on Something Awful Forums, via

Comment author: SRStarin 11 April 2011 01:02:59PM 3 points [-]

Meh. Tony ruined that guy's role-playing fun at a Ren Faire. People pretend to believe all kinds of silly stuff at a Ren Faire.

Last year my husband and I went to Ren Faire dressed as monks, pushing our daughter, dressed as a baby dragon, around in a stroller. (We got lots of comments about vows of celibacy.) We bought our daughter a little flower-shaped hair pin when we were there, after asking what would look best on a dragon. What Tony did would have been like the salesperson saying "That's not a dragon."

Comment author: Dorikka 06 April 2011 03:29:18PM 4 points [-]

And then the guy walks away trying to prevent himself from bursting out with laughter at the fact that he just managed to get an incredibly good deal on a strong power crystal that Tony, who had clearly not been educated in such things, mistakenly believed was simple quartz.

Comment author: Yvain 05 April 2011 11:36:38PM *  16 points [-]

Story kind of bothers me. Yeah, you can get someone to pretend not to believe something by offering a fiscal reward, but that doesn't prove anything.

If I were a geologist and correctly identified the crystal as the rare and valuable mineral unobtainite which I had been desperately seeking samples of, but Tony stubbornly insisted it was quartz - and if Tony then told me it was $150 if it was unobtainite but $15 if it was quartz - I'd call it quartz too if it meant I could get my sample for cheaper. So what?

Comment author: Alicorn 05 April 2011 11:42:31PM 11 points [-]

I think the interesting part of the story is that it caused the power crystal dude to shut up about power crystals when he'd previously evinced interest in telling everyone about them. I don't think you could get the same effect for $135 from a lot of, say, missionaries.

Comment author: Nominull 04 April 2011 01:35:51PM *  43 points [-]

On the plus side, bad things happening to you does not mean you are a bad person. On the minus side, bad things will happen to you even if you are a good person. In the end you are just another victim of the motivationless malice of directed acyclic causal graphs.

-Nobilis RPG 3rd edition

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 April 2011 04:22:09PM 7 points [-]

...that was written by a Less Wrong reader. Or if not, someone who independently reinvented things to well past the point where I want to talk to them. Do you know the author?

Comment author: David_Gerard 04 April 2011 04:35:35PM *  2 points [-]

Or if not, someone who independently reinvented things to well past the point where I want to talk to them.

The memes are getting out there! (Hopefully.)

Comment author: spriteless 08 April 2011 10:36:47PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: thomblake 07 April 2011 08:38:54PM 3 points [-]

Seriously, she seems pretty awesome. link to Johns Hopkins profile

Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 06 April 2011 03:32:43AM *  5 points [-]

...that was written by a Less Wrong reader. Or if not, someone who independently reinvented things to well past the point where I want to talk to them. Do you know the author?

Hasn't using DAGs to talk about causality long been a staple of the philosophy and computer science of causation? The logical positivist philosopher Hans Reichenbach used directed acyclic graphs to depict causal relationships between events in his book The Direction of Time (1956). (See, e.g., p. 37.)

A little searching online also turned up this 1977 article in Proc Annu Symp Comput Appl Med Care. From p. 72:

When a set of cause and effect relationships between states is specified, the resulting structure is a network, or directed acyclic graph of states.

That article came out around the time of Pearl's first papers, and it doesn't cite him. Had his ideas already reached that level of saturation?

ETA: I've looked a little more closely at the 1977 paper, which is entitled "Problems in the Design of Knowledge Bases for Medical Consultation". It appears to completely lack the idea of performing surgery on the DAGs, though I may have missed something. Here is a longer quote from the paper (p. 72):

Many states may occur simultaneously in any disease process. A state thus defined may be viewed as a qualitative restriction on a state variable as used in control systems theory. It does not correspond to one of the mutually exclusive states that could be used to describe a probabilistic system.

[...]

When a set of cause and effect relationships between states is specified, the resulting structure is a network, or directed acyclic graph of states.

The mappings between nodes n_i of the causal net are of n_i -- a_{ij} --> n_j where a_{ij} is the strength of causation (interpreted in terms of its frequency of occurrence) and n_i and n_j are states which are summarized by English language statements. This rule is interpreted as: state n_i causes state n_j, independent of other events, with frequency a_{ij}. Starting states are also assigned a frequency measure indicating a prior or starting frequency. The levels of causation are represented by numerical values, fractions between zero and one, which correspond to qualitative ranges such as: sometimes, often, usually, or always.

So, when it comes to demystifying causation, there is still a long distance from merely using DAGs to using DAGs in the particularly insightful way that Pearl does.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 07 April 2011 06:03:06AM 4 points [-]

The point is that it's not commonly internalized to the point where someone will correctly use DAG as a synonym for "universe".

Comment author: wedrifid 10 April 2011 08:36:49AM 4 points [-]

The point is that it's not commonly internalized to the point where someone will correctly use DAG as a synonym for "universe".

Synonym? Not just 'capable of being used to perfectly represent', but an actual literal synonym? That's a remarkable claim. I'm not saying I outright don't believe it but it is something I would want to see explained in detail first.

Would reading Pearl (competently) be sufficient to make someone use the term DAG correctly in that sense?

Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 07 April 2011 05:41:52PM *  3 points [-]

The point is that it's not commonly internalized to the point where someone will correctly use DAG as a synonym for "universe".

All that I see in the quote is that the DAG is taken to determine what happens to you in some unanalyzed sense. You often hear similar statements saying that the cold equations of physics determine your fate, but the speaker is not necessarily thinking of "equations of physics" as synonymous with "universe".

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 11 April 2011 01:35:51AM *  8 points [-]

Hi, you might want to consider this paper:

http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/soc/class/soc952/Wright/Wright_The%20Method%20of%20Path%20Coefficients.pdf

This paper is remarkable not only because it correctly formalizes causation in linear models using DAGs, but also that it gives a method for connecting causal and observational quantities in a way that's still in use today. (The method itself was proposed in 1923, I believe). Edit: apparently in 1920-21, with earliest known reference apparently dating back to 1918.

Using DAGs for causality certainly predates Pearl. Identifying "randomization on X" with "dividing by P(x | pa(x))" might be implicit in fairly old papers also. Again, this idea predates Pearl.

There's always more to the story than one insightful book.

Comment author: cousin_it 11 April 2011 09:22:14AM *  4 points [-]

Good find, thanks. The handwritten equations are especially nice.

Ilya, it looks you're the perfect person to write an introductory LW post about causal graphs. We don't have any good intro to the topic showing why it is important and non-obvious (e.g. the smoking/tar/cancer example). I'm willing to read drafts, but given your credentials I think it's not necessary :-)

Comment author: Sniffnoy 05 April 2011 11:28:59PM 8 points [-]

Or just someone else who read Pearl, no?

Comment author: Mycroft65536 04 April 2011 02:03:38PM 45 points [-]

Luck is statistics taken personally.

Penn Jellete

Comment author: Alicorn 18 April 2011 09:44:21PM 2 points [-]

You know, in the comic books where super-powered mutants are real, no one seems to question the theory of evolution. Maybe we're going about this all wrong.

-- Surviving The World

Comment author: Nornagest 18 April 2011 09:52:51PM *  4 points [-]

I initially parsed that as meaning something like "we're clearly not getting the mechanics of evolution across, since people in the comics [and by extension writers] are happy to treat it as something that can produce superheroes". But in context it actually seems to mean "let's create some superheroes to demonstrate the efficacy of evolution beyond any reasonable doubt".

Comic exaggeration, sure, and I'm probably supposed to interpret the word "evolution" very loosely if I want to take the quote at all seriously. But in view of the former, I still can't help but think that there's something fundamentally naive about the latter.

Comment author: Alicorn 18 April 2011 10:07:57PM 2 points [-]

I didn't quote the commentary under the comic for a reason.

Comment author: HonoreDB 15 April 2011 02:53:03AM *  4 points [-]

(Courtesy of my dad)

One must be absolutely modern. No hymns! Hold the ground gained.

Arthur Rimbaud, 1873

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 14 April 2011 11:44:56AM *  15 points [-]

Fluff Principle: on a user-voted news site, the links that are easiest to judge will take over unless you take specific measures to prevent it.

Paul Graham "What I've learned from Hacker News"

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 13 April 2011 08:28:27AM 6 points [-]
Comment author: atucker 13 April 2011 04:11:09AM *  3 points [-]

I don't have a simple answer

But I know that I could answer

-- The Killers in This is Your Life

Comment author: Pavitra 09 April 2011 06:33:59PM *  6 points [-]

On boldness:

If you're gonna make a mistake, make it a good, loud mistake!

-- Augiedog, Half the Day is Night

(Edit: I should mention that the linked story is MLP fanfic. The MLP fandom may be a memetic hazard; it seems to have taken over my life for the past several days, though I tend to do that with most things, so YMMV. Proceed with caution.)

Comment author: ThroneMonkey 09 April 2011 01:10:08AM 4 points [-]

"I can't make myself believe something that I don't believe" —Ricky Gervais, in discussing his atheism

Reminds me of the scene in HPMOR where Harry makes Draco a scientist.

Comment deleted 06 April 2011 07:13:37AM *  [-]
Comment author: Unnamed 06 April 2011 06:00:09PM 3 points [-]
Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 06 April 2011 03:27:01AM *  27 points [-]

Complex problems have simple, easy to understand wrong answers.

— Grossman's Law

Comment author: Confringus 07 April 2011 02:55:11AM 2 points [-]

Is there a law that states that all simple problems have complex, hard to understand answers? Moravec's paradox sort of covers it but it seems that principle should have its own label.

Comment author: nhamann 05 April 2011 09:22:48PM 24 points [-]

True heroism is minutes, hours, weeks, year upon year of the quiet, precise, judicious exercise of probity and care—with no one there to see or cheer.

— David Foster Wallace, The Pale King

Comment author: CronoDAS 05 April 2011 06:25:31PM *  25 points [-]

A fable:

In Persia many centuries ago, the Sufi mullah or holy man Nasruddin was arrested after preaching in the great square in front of the Shah's palace. The local clerics had objected to Mullah Nasruddin's unorthodox teachings, and had demanded his arrest and execution as a heretic. Dragged by palace guards to the Shah's throne room, he was sentenced immediately to death.

As he was being taken away, however, Nasruddin cried out to the Shah: "O great Shah, if you spare me, I promise that within a year I will teach your favourite horse to sing!"

The Shah knew that Sufis often told the most outrageous fables, which sounded blasphemous to many Muslims but which were nevertheless intended as lessons to those who would learn. Thus he had been tempted to be merciful, anyway, despite the demands of his own religious advisors. Now, admiring the audacity of the old man, and being a gambler at heart, he accepted his proposal.

The next morning, Nasruddin was in the royal stable, singing hymns to the Shah's horse, a magnificent white stallion. The animal, however, was more interested in his oats and hay, and ignored him. The grooms and stablehands all shook their heads and laughed at him. "You old fool", said one. "What have you accomplished by promising to teach the Shah's horse to sing? You are bound to fail, and when you do, the Shah will not only have you killed - you'll be tortured as well, for mocking him!"

Nasruddin turned to the groom and replied: "On the contrary, I have indeed accomplished much. Remember, I have been granted another year of life, which is precious in itself. Furthermore, in that time, many things can happen. I might escape. Or I might die anyway. Or the Shah might die, and his successor will likely release all prisoners to celebrate his accession to the throne".

"Or...". Suddenly, Nasruddin smiled. "Or, perhaps, the horse will learn to sing".

The original source of this fable seems to be lost to time. This version was written by Idries Shah.

Comment author: ewang 05 April 2011 05:57:27PM *  6 points [-]

Clevinger exclaimed to Yossarian in a voice rising and falling in protest and wonder. "It's a complete reversion to primitive superstition. They're confusing cause and effect. It makes as much sense as knocking on wood or crossing your fingers. They really believe that we wouldn't have to fly that mission tomorrow if someone would only tiptoe up to the map in the middle of the night and move the bomb line over Bologna. Can you imagine? You and I must be the only rational ones left." In the middle of the night Yossarian knocked on wood, crossed his fingers, and tiptoed out of his tent to move the bomb line up over Bologna.

Joseph Heller (Catch-22)

Comment author: wnoise 05 April 2011 09:38:36PM 1 point [-]

A bit more context for those who haven't read Catch-22 would probably help.

Comment author: ewang 06 April 2011 07:02:05AM *  2 points [-]

I don't think anything else could be added that deepens the understanding of the quote, besides the fact that moving the bomb line actually works because Corporal Kolodny (who is obviously a corporal named Kolodny) can't distinguish between cause and effect either.

Comment author: RobinZ 05 April 2011 05:04:14PM 33 points [-]

Should we then call the original replicator molecules 'living'? Who cares? I might say to you 'Darwin was the greatest man who has ever lived', and you might say 'No, Newton was', but I hope we would not prolong the argument. The point is that no conclusion of substance would be affected whichever way our argument was resolved. The facts of the lives and achievements of Newton and Darwin remain totally unchanged whether we label them 'great' or not. Similarly, the story of the replicator molecules probably happened something like the way I am telling it, regardless of whether we choose to call them 'living'. Human suffering has been caused because too many of us cannot grasp that words are only tools for our use, and that the mere presence in the dictionary of a word like 'living' does not mean it necessarily has to refer to something definite in the real world. Whether we call the early replicators living or not, they were the ancestors of life; they were our founding fathers.

Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene.

(cf. Disguised Queries.)

Comment author: KenChen 05 April 2011 01:58:17PM *  21 points [-]

Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.

– Douglas Hofstadter, Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid

Comment author: DSimon 06 April 2011 09:22:39PM 1 point [-]

Doesn't that spiral out to infinity?

Comment author: Manfred 06 April 2011 09:40:09PM 10 points [-]

It can just asymptotically approach the right value. It's probably more metaphorical, though.

Comment author: HonoreDB 06 April 2011 09:51:43PM 13 points [-]

It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account the limit of infinite applications of Hofstadter's Law.

Comment author: ata 06 April 2011 10:02:17PM 8 points [-]

Even further:

Hofstadter's Law+: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account the limit of infinite applications of Hofstadter's Law+.

Comment author: [deleted] 07 April 2011 01:01:16AM 8 points [-]

For all ordinal numbers n, define Hodstadter's n-law as "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's m-law for all m < n."

Comment author: Sniffnoy 07 April 2011 06:28:00AM *  3 points [-]

...which then forces things to take an infinite amount of time once you get to n=omega_1, so thankfully things stop there.

EDIT April 13: Oops, you can't actually "reach" omega_1 like this; I was not thinking properly. Omega_1 flat out does not embed in R. So... yeah.