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SilasBarta comments on First Waco, Texas LW Meetup, 4/09, 1PM - Less Wrong
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Comments (54)
This comment is more likely if Silas is Clippy than if he isn't.
This comment is more likely if Quirinus Quirrel is Clippy than if he isn't.
This comment is more likely if Douglas Hofstadter is Clippy than if he isn't.
Less Wrong is actually the work of one tireless sockpuppeter.
I've been found out! By me!
This comment is more likely if there is an established patters of saying "This comment is more likely if X is Y"
Really? That's not at all obvious to me. That's true if Quirrel is stupid. If they are the same person then this draws attention to the two accounts belonging to the same individual. Moreover, it potentially drastically increases the amount of data people have in figuring out what entity the two of them are. It isn't obvious to me whether this comment should make one more or less likely to think that Quirrel is Clippy.
Nested countersignalling games are far more likely from an involved person than one not involved at all. At least that is the case where there are a large number of contributors with various levels of interest in Clippy's identity. Even the mere fact that Quirrel made an observation about the Clippy identity topic conveys a whole heap of information.
That's a really good point. You are correct.
That would just as well prove that I wouldn't make the Clippy posts, because I would want to avoid the association.