jsalvatier comments on Cryptanalysis as Epistemology? (paging cryptonerds) - Less Wrong
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Perhaps it would be instructive to look at both Science and Cryptoanalysis as special cases + approximations of bayesian updating. Then compare the assumptions that make the special cases work well in both cases and see if they share lots of important assumptions. If they do, that suggests there might be crossover lessons; if not then whatever the big different assumptions will help you understand how such crossovers might fail to exist.