Yeah, you're making a flawed argument by analogy. "There's an infinite regress in deductive logic, so therefore any attempt at justification using probability will also lead to an infinite regress." The reason that probabilistic justification doesn't run into this (or at least, not the exact analogous thing) is that "being wrong" is a definite state with known properties, that is taken into account when you make your estimate. This is very unlike deductive logic.