(Possibly an example of the halo effect: the good guys are good, the progress is good, so the good guys will make faster progress than the bad guys. Quite probably, there was better reasoning behind this argument, but Deutsch doesn't give it, and doesn't hint at its existence, probably because he considers the conclusion obvious, which is in any case a flaw of the talk.)
He doesn't consider it obvious. He considers nothing obvious in general (in a serious, not vacuous way). This in particular he has thought about, not because it is obvious but because it isn't.
The basic reason "good guys" make progress faster than "bad guys" (in the sense of: immoral guys, like prone to violence) is that they have more stable, peaceful, cooperative societies that are better suited to making progress. It's because good values are more effective in real life.
There's discussion of this stuff in his book The Beginning of Infinity.
The basic reason "good guys" make progress faster than "bad guys" (in the sense of: immoral guys, like prone to violence) is that they have more stable, peaceful, cooperative societies that are better suited to making progress. It's because good values are more effective in real life.
This sort of claim seems to run into historical problems. A lot of major expansionist violent empires have done quite well for themselves. In modern times, some of the most "bad" groups have done well as well. The Nazis in many ways had much be...
http://vimeo.com/22099396
What do people think of this, from a Bayesian perspective?
It is a talk given to the Oxford Transhumanists. Their previous speaker was Eliezer Yudkowsky. Audio version and past talks here: http://groupspaces.com/oxfordtranshumanists/pages/past-talks