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curi comments on David Deutsch on How To Think About The Future - Less Wrong
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I don't quite get your point. You are saying that if you bring up betting (a real life scenario where probability is highly relevant), then given your explanations that help you come up with priors (background knowledge needed to be able to do any math about it), you shouldn't act on those explanations in ways that violates math. OK, so what? probability math is useful in some limited cases, given some explanatory knowledge to get set up. no one said otherwise.
Every decision is a bet.
I think you are beginning to get the point. :) The key missing fact here is that in fact the resulting math is highly constraining, to the point that if you actually follow it all the way you will be acting in a manner isomorphic to a Bayesian utility-maximizer.