You've assumed i'm a chess beginner. You did the same thing when you assumed i never beat any halfway decent chess program. I'm actually a strong player and don't have a 0.0001% chance against kasparov. i have friends who are GMs who i can play decent games with.
also, didn't i specify a writer can make such a prediction before being 100% done? e.g. at 99.9%. or, perhaps 90%. it depends. but i didn't just say when part way done. you don't read carefully enough.
here it was
Like writers can predict they will finish writing a book (even if they haven't worked out 100% of the plot yet) in advance.
You've assumed i'm a chess beginner.
That you are not an order-of-Kasparov chess player is the right prior, even if in fact it so turns out that you happen to be Kasparov himself. These people are rare, and you've previously given no indication to me that you're one of them. But again, LCPW.
http://vimeo.com/22099396
What do people think of this, from a Bayesian perspective?
It is a talk given to the Oxford Transhumanists. Their previous speaker was Eliezer Yudkowsky. Audio version and past talks here: http://groupspaces.com/oxfordtranshumanists/pages/past-talks