you should respect that knowledge instead of ignore it and assuming i'm making basic LCPW mistakes
It is easily observable in this thread that you are making LCPW mistakes. You haven't solved the game of chess, therefore the Least Convenient Possible World contains an AI powerful enough to explore the entire game tree of chess, solve the game, and beat you every time.
http://vimeo.com/22099396
What do people think of this, from a Bayesian perspective?
It is a talk given to the Oxford Transhumanists. Their previous speaker was Eliezer Yudkowsky. Audio version and past talks here: http://groupspaces.com/oxfordtranshumanists/pages/past-talks