timtyler comments on David Deutsch on How To Think About The Future - Less Wrong

4 Post author: curi 11 April 2011 07:08AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (197)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: timtyler 15 April 2011 02:31:58PM 2 points [-]

Deutsch argues that the future is fundamentally unpredictable, that for example expected utility considerations can't be applied to the future, because we are ignorant of the possible outcomes and intermediate steps leading to those outcomes, and the options that will be available; and there is no way to get around this. The very use of the concept of probability in this context, Deutsch says, is invalid.

This bit starts about 12 minutes in. It is complete nonsense - Deutsch does not have a clue about the subject matter he is talking about :-(